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The latest spell of unseasonal rains in parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan and tight demand-supply conditions are likely to spice up the sentiment around cumin (jeera) for the current season. On the NCDEX, jeera futures for the March contract was last quoted at ₹30,325 per quintal on Thursday. This is lower by about 20 per cent from the peak levels of ₹37,990 quoted in January 2023. However, analysts and trader sources expect the seed spice to rule firm and inch up to hit record levels later in the season after the rise in export demand. Over the last weeks, Gujarat and Rajasthan — the largest jeera growing regions — received unseasonal rains with hailstorms at isolated places in Gujarat. This is feared to have dampened the crop prospects with concerns over quality. The Met has predicted more rains between March 13 and 18.
“The impact of unseasonal rains on cumin will be felt more in Rajasthan and parts of Kutch and Banaskantha districts of Gujarat. We don’t see much impact in the Saurashtra region, where most of the cumin crop was already harvested and stocked. However, in the tight balance sheet with negligible carryover stock (around 25,000-27,000 tonnes), we believe there will be a demand-supply gap which will not let the prices fall but keep it firm,” said Ashwin Nayak, President, Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS).
FISS recently released its crop estimates for key seed spices including cumin, coriander (dhaniya), fenugreek (methi) and fennel seed (saunf).
Demand-supply gap
It estimated the cumin crop for 2022-23 at 3.84 lakh tonnes, which is 28 per cent more than last year’s 3.01 lakh tonnes. FISS said the overall sowing area increased by 12.9 per cent in Gujarat and Rajasthan, while yields are expected to be higher by about 13.2 per cent over last year. The cumin crop in Gujarat will be higher by 22 per cent at 1.41 lakh tonnes, while the Rajasthan crop will be higher by 32 per cent at 2.43 lakh tonnes. Nayak said the demand would be 80-85 lakh bags and cumin availability will be around 70-75 lakh bags (including 5 lakh bags of carryover), which will leave a demand-supply gap triggering a price rise. Premchand Motta, a leading spices expert, estimated jeera crop at 60-65 lakh bags, while the damage due to unseasonal rains would be in the range of 5-7 per cent. “The 2023 crop was initially expected to be 55-60 lakh bags, which caused a bullish sentiment. Now, FISS estimates suggested 69 lakh bags so there is a bearish sentiment. But I don’t expect the crop to be above 60-65 lakh bags,” said Motta, hinting that prices may touch ₹37,500 per quintal in the later part of the season. Traders also anticipate good export demand in March fuelling the bullish sentiment. In 2022, FISS estimated jeera exports at around 1.7 lakh tonnes, which was lower than 2.2 lakh tonnes the previous year, Nayak said, “This year we expect exports to be around 2 lakh tonnes as we expect Chinese buying to return after a year’s gap.”
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