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The US Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) has said that the suppressed convection (dry phase) over the Indian Ocean would be replaced by active convection (rainy phase) during the next few days.
This coincides with the expected arrival of the weather-altering Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as it returns to the West Africa-Indian Ocean stretch to signal the transformation.
Strength suspect
CPC expects a typical progression of the wave eastward over the Indian Ocean in the next few weeks, although there is considerable model disagreement about how strong it will be.
They are also not sure how far East it will propagate before breaking down, although it has the back-up of an atmospheric Kelvin wave during the week from June 27 to July 6.
The Kelvin wave is a special gravity wave that plays a major part in the generation and maintenance of an MJO wave. It is expected to 'recouple' convection (cloud-building) over the Indian Ocean.
CPC also hinted of 'moderate confidence' in the prospects of a low-pressure area over India bringing above-average rainfall to the North-Eastern States as well as over the Bay of Bengal.
Enhanced rain cover
This forecast is supported by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts guidance and the possible development of active MJO convection during the ongoing week (June 20 to 26).
CPC went on to show an area of enhanced rainfall from North-West India to North Andhra Pradesh-Odisha-Bengal coast into Bay of Bengal, Myanmar and Bangladesh during June 20 to 26.
It corresponded with the arrival phase of the MJO over the Indian Ocean, impacting the Arabian Sea and the Bay in that order, and likely setting up a low-pressure area.
The 'low' in turn would bring to life the crucial monsoon trough from the South-East (Bengal) to North-West (West Rajasthan), likely bringing in rains during this week.
Most of North-West India and Central India are likely to be covered under this scenario, although the prospects for Gujarat have not been brought into the picture.
Heavy rain forecast
Satellite pictures this morning showed rain clouds massing up along a stretch from North Kerala to Udupi in Coastal Karnataka on the West Coast. Heavier bands of convection are approaching the Panaji-Ratnagiri-Ganpati Pule-Mahabaleshwar stretch to the North by around 12 noon.
As for today, India Met Department has forecast heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places over Konkan and Goa, while it will be heavy at isolated places over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, Assam, Meghalaya and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Thunderstorms accompanied with gusty winds and lightning have ben forecast at isolated places over East Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
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