Uttarakhand not out of the woods yet, with no let-up likely from rain

Rains may start afresh over the South Peninsula in another week’s time, says IMD

Satellite pictures on Friday morning show the withdrawal of the South-West monsoon, marked by dry air and nil moisture (in yellow and red) being pushed back to the fringes of North-West India by rain and clouds (green and white) emanating from the Bay of Bengal and crossing inland. | Photo Credit: nil

Updated predictions by the India Meteorological Department this (Friday) morning have extended the outlook for fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated or scattered heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning over Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh for the next five days until Tuesday next.

This is in view of a combination of rain-driving cyclonic circulations that have sustained over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and the South Bay of Bengal, and an equally productive but zig-zagging trough linking coastal Andhra Pradesh with North Uttar Pradesh across Telangana, Vidarbha and West Madhya Pradesh.

North-West to stay wet

A similar weather outlook is valid also for East Uttar Pradesh on Friday and Saturday; Haryana on Saturday and Sunday; East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh until Sunday; and East Madhya Pradesh on Friday. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh until Sunday. Isolated extremely heavy falls are also likely over Uttarakhand on both Friday and Saturday. Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning are forecast for East Gujarat and Madhya Maharashtra on Saturday and Sunday; Marathawada and Telangana on Friday; coastal Andhra Pradesh until Sunday; Rayalaseema, North Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry on both Friday and Saturday.

Rains afresh for the South Peninsula

Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls may lash the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim on Friday and Saturday and Odisha on Sunday. Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning may be unleashed over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya until Tuesday next, and over Mizoram and Tripura from Sunday to Tuesday. Meanwhile, a fresh cyclonic circulation may develop over the South-East Bay and adjoining Andaman Sea during October 13–19 and move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall and isolated heavy falls are likely over the South Peninsula during most days of the week, when the window for the onset of the North-East monsoon also opens.

Monsoon withdrawal stalled

Above normal rainfall is the likely outcome for the South Peninsula (normal to above normal rainfall over Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu) during October 14 to 20. The US Climate Prediction Centre has, however, hinted at a dampener during the week that follows (October 19 to 25), when the rainfall regime over the entire country is forecast to stay muted, though subject to review. Withdrawal of the South-West monsoon has stalled along Uttarkashi, Naziabad, Agra, Gwalior, Ratlam and Bharuch since October 3. All-India rainfall was 10 per cent below the long-period average during October 1–5, considered normal in IMD parlance. An otherwise deficit-ridden North-East India alone returned a surplus (seven per cent) during this period. Earlier, the South-West monsoon ended with a surplus of six per cent on September 30, leaving individual deficits over parts of the North-West and entire East India.

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Wet weather. Uttarakhand not out of the woods yet, with no let-up likely from rain