Weather: Weakening 'Tauktae' set to drench Rajasthan

Extremely severe cyclone ‘Tauktae’ slammed into the Saurashtra coast on Monday night in a landfall marked by destructive winds, heavy rainfall and a storm surge. The morning after (Tuesday), it has weakened into a very severe cyclone and was located 95 km North-North-East of Diu and 10 km South of Amreli in Gujarat.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the system will continue to weaken and wind down in strength as a severe cyclone, as it prepares to enter the desert state of Rajasthan. It will bring heavy rain to Gujarat, Kutch, North Konkan (including Mumbai) and South Rajasthan today and tomorrow (Wednesday).

Erstwhile extremely severe cyclone 'Tauktae' is likely to retain cyclonic strength as it enters the desert state of Rajasthan on Tuesday and will bring rain to the hills and the rest of the plains of North-West India.

Source: www.meteologix.com/in

Heavy rain likely over Rajasthan

The rare cyclonic system entering North-West India will trigger rainfall at many places over South Rajasthan with heavy to very heavy falls and extremely heavy falls at isolated places today (Tuesday) and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Rajasthan as a whole on Wednesday.

Thus, Rajasthan will have received significant rainfall more than a month before the South-West monsoon breaks out over the desert state. The IMD has said seasonal rains are expected to break out over the Kerala coast, farther away to the South-West, around May 31, a day before the normal date of onset.

MJO wave retains strength

Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the moderate to strong pulse of the periodical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, which was instrumental in setting up cyclone ‘Tauktae’ in the Arabian Sea, may not lose its intensity as it passes over the Bay of Bengal next.

International climate models, including the Australian Bureau, have forecast that the MJO pulse will continue tracking to the East on its usual track at similar strength this week and into the next as it traverses the Bay before it enters the maritime continent longitudes (Indonesia, Philippines, et al).

Likely 'blow-up' over the Bay

Global models see a blow-up over the southern parts of the Bay before the weekend, likely precipitating the onset of the monsoon over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. This will announce the arrival of the rains over the territorial waters of India, which more or less corresponds with the normal timeline for onset here.

A low-pressure area is expected to form in the Bay as a result of the strong flows triggered by erstwhile extremely severe cyclone ‘Tauktae,’ and strengthen into a potential storm. This will also bring back a regime of heavy to very heavy rain along the Kerala-Karnataka coast into May-end.

Extended IMD outlook

In an extended outlook valid from May 23 to 25, the IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorms, with isolated heavy falls over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and scattered to fairly widespread over northeast India, the South-West Peninsula (Kerala and Karnataka) and Lakshadweep.

It said this (Tuesday) morning that the weakening ‘Tauktae’ will cause fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorms along with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over the hills of North-West India and the adjoining plains (Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh) both today and tomorrow.

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