Comments
The monsoon withdrawal has not been able to proceed much, with a prevailing low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal off North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha persisting on Friday, promising fairly widespread to widespread rainfall for Odisha, Jharkhand and plains of West Bengal for next 3-4 days.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast isolated heavy-to-very heavy rainfall over Odisha until Monday, as well as isolated heavy rainfall over the plains of West Bengal till Saturday and over Jharkhand on both Saturday and Sunday as part of the escalating wet regime in the East.
Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are also likely over Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura till Monday. It is increasingly becoming clear that the low, having already kicked off post-monsoon activity in the Bay of Bengal, could well become a harbinger for more such activity during the coming days.
Global models are picking up a groundswell of activity upstream over the South China Sea immediately after the current Bay low pushes into Peninsular India and signs off. A fresh low may build around the Andaman Sea by October 10 or so. The IMD’s short-to-medium term outlook, too, agrees.
N-E monsoon prospects
This low is expected to have back-up support from another circulation being scrambled by the West Pacific/South China Sea, which could likely lead to a favourable environment for easterly to north-easterly wind regime to establish over the Bay of Bengal and later over Peninsular India.
It remains to be seen if the Bay and South China Sea would combine to pull in the North-East monsoon any time soon; the normal onset of the season happens into the third week of October.
Also read: Monsoon third-best in 30 years despite a truant July, says IMD
A forecast outlook from the Myanmar national weather forecaster is instructive here.
Myanmar on cue with outlook
The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has said that South-West monsoon has withdrawn from the North Bay of Bengal and Central Myanmar. Already, it has predicted two low-pressure areas forming in the adjoining Bay, one of which may go on to become a depression.
Also read: Monsoon near reprise of record-breaking 2019
The first such low-pressure area is already doing the rounds over the Bay as depicted by the satellite pictures on Friday evening, while the Myanmar national forecaster may have been alluding to the expected follow-up system in the Bay to materialise next week (around October 10).
Comments
COMMENT NOW
Comments
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.