Agri Business

Weather holds New Year surprise for North

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on December 31, 2018 Published on December 31, 2018

Active western disturbance expected to bring rain, snow and relief from the biting cold

With rains expected, the New Year is promising to bring not just some welcome respite from the cold for parts of North-West India but also a buzz in the form of a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal (around the Andaman Sea) later in the first week.

While crops will benefit, the rain is also expected to provide some respite from the prevailing low temperatures.

The low-pressure area in the Bay would be an extension of a non-seasonal storm taking shape in the South China Sea and drifting to the southern parts of Thailand and Myanmar, before entering the Andaman Sea.

According to projections by the India Met Department (IMD), the storm (at least of depression strength) may crumble even before entering the Bay.

An ECMWF forecast saw the system loitering for sometime in the Central Bay, losing traction due to adverse conditions, and taking a U-turn to head towards Bangladesh as a weak ‘low.’

It is practically of no consequence to the mainland Indian coast, except for some passing showers from the South Tamil Nadu coast and more so for Sri Lanka to its South. But squally winds and rough seas have been forecast for the Andaman Sea and neighbouring areas on Friday and Saturday.

Meanwhile, an ‘active western disturbance’ would dictate weather for the Western Himalayas for at least two days of the New Year on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Active western disturbance

An ‘active western disturbance’ is of significance in the context of North-West India not having hosted it for quite some time now in the ongoing winter, which explains the lows to which temperatures have plunged in the region.

‘Active’ is the same as ‘well-endowed,’ meaning adequate moisture carry and associated cloudiness, snow or rainfall. The net effect would be relief from the biting cold since the clouds would hold back the solar heat from escaping the ground.

IMD forecast

The IMD has forecast scattered to fairly widespread rain/snow over the hills of North-West India, and isolated rainfall for parts of the plains, including in Punjab and over the northern parts of Haryana.


“Likely increase in cloudiness and humidity could lead to a further gradual increase in night (minimum) temperatures over parts of North-West India, reducing the severity of cold wave conditions for the next two days,” the IMD clarified.

However, dense fog conditions may occur during the late night to morning hours over these regions, especially from Wednesday.

Prevailing cold wave to severe cold wave conditions may continue over parts of Central and adjoining Peninsular India and East India during the next three days.

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Published on December 31, 2018
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