Weather: IMD upgrades outlook to severe cyclone in Bay

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has upgraded the outlook in the Bay of Bengal to a severe cyclone after an existing well-marked low-pressure area over South-East Bay of Bengal intensified early this (Saturday) morning into a depression. It was located about 1,100 km South of Paradip (Odisha); 1250 km South of Digha (West Bengal); and 1,330 South-South-West of Khepupara (Bangladesh).

The system could rapidly intensify, that is, twice over during the course of the day, into a cyclone by the evening and further intensify into a severe cyclone tomorrow (Sunday). It may move North-North-West till Sunday and then re-curve to the North-North-East towards the North Bay from Monday to Wednesday. This slow movement and extended stay over the very warm waters could help the prospective severe cyclone to intensify even more, according to some global forecast models, which see a cyclone of catastrophic strength in the making away from the East Coast of India.

May pick up further strength

The building storm is already kicking up squally winds with speeds of 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr over the South-East and the adjoining South-West Bay. These are likely to ratchet up to 90-100 km/hr gusting to 110 km/hr over the East-Central and adjoining West-Central Bay by Sunday morning; 120-130 km/hr gusting to 145 km/hr over the southern parts of the Central Bay Monday.

Later, the storm is expected to grow further in strength, rustling up wind speeds of 155-165 km/hr gusting to 180 km/hr over the Northern parts of the Central Bay and adjoining North Bay by Tuesday; and 160-170 km/hr gusting to 190 km/hr over the North Bay by Wednesday morning. The Bay continues to feature some of the warmest waters along the global tropical region, with a large warm pool extending over its South-West, West-Central and North-West (31 degree Celsius).

Warmest waters in tropics

Sea-surface temperatures are warmest at 32 degree Celsius in the deep waters off the Andhra Pradesh coast on Saturday. The building storm is forecast to tread along the warm pool in the open waters (away from any coast) at a slow pace that gives it the freedom to devour oodles of moisture being generated. The moisture in turn goes to build huge thunderstorms around the system and construct the storm tower.

IMD has advised fishermen to not venture into these areas during these periods. They have been advised not to venture into the Odisha-West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts from during Monday to Wednesday. Those out at sea are advised to return to the coast. Conditions are expected to become favourable for the onset of the South-West monsoon into some parts of the South-East Bay, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands in by Sunday, the IMD added.

Monsoon to enter Bay

Scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershowers with lightning and gusty winds (30-40 km/hr) have been forecast over the South Peninsula during the next 4-5 days along with isolated heavy rainfall activity over Kerala during next four days; over South Interior Karnataka during today and tomorrow; and over Coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep today.

The North-Eastern States may continue to experience scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershowers during next four days. Isolated heavy falls is likely over Assam and Meghalaya during until tomorrow. It will be scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated heavy falls over Odisha and plains of West Bengal from Monday.