Agri Business

West Coast, Central India await heavy rain spell in early July

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on June 29, 2020

The West Coast — especially Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka — along with Central India could be the focus of enhanced monsoon activity into early July, normally the rainiest month, even as the first monsoon month of June prepares to sign off with excess rainfall of around 20 per cent, among the best in recent times.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, however, that the hills of North-West India (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) and adjoining plains may continue to witness subdued activity during the next five days though things would change for the better thereafter.

Strong spell for coast

Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is forecast to continue along the West Coast during this period before the proceedings get amplified with raised intensity, precipitating isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka as yet another monsoon pulse unfolds.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is the call for Central India, with isolated heavy falls being forecast over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during these five days and over Vidarbha on July 2 and 3, the IMD said. A similar outlook is valid for East India, thanks to a trough and a cyclonic circulation.

The North-South trough runs down from Norh-East Bihar to North Coastal Odisha, and is topped off by the circulation over East Uttar Pradesh. This combo feeds in huge moisture from the Bay of Bengal and would rain it down heavily over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, hills of West Bengal, Assam and Meghalaya.

Truncated monsoon trough

Meanwhile, the crucial monsoon trough running diagonally across North India, the single-most important monsoon feature over North India, ran down on Monday from Amritsar, Ambala, Delhi, Fursatganj, Jehanabad, Dhanbad and Digha before its south-eastern end dipped into the Bay of Bengal.

Its north-western end has to ideally shift further south from South-West to Rajasthan to convert itself to a fully productive channel for low-pressure areas from the Bay to move in and ensure equitable rainfall across and time and space for the farming heartland. This may take a while to happen.

According to the IMD projections, this may be delayed until July 7 when a low-pressure area is expected to form over the Head Bay. It is forecast to move along the monsoon trough across East India initially to Central India, before proceeding to Rajasthan along a more southerly than usual track.

Heavy over Central India

This could bring heavy to very heavy rainfall over Central India, West India and adjoining North-West India, all across the West Coast, Gujarat and South-West Rajasthan by the end of the first week of July. Extended outlook for July 4-6 says fairly widespread to widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated intense to very intense falls for northern parts of the West Coast, North-East India and northern plains.

Scattered rainfall/thundershowers are likely over Central and adjoining East India, Lakshadweep and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands during this period.

Meanwhile, strong winds have been warned over both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the run-up to the emerging new active phase of the monsoon.

Published on June 29, 2020

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