European model sees better spread of thundershowers

The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees the area extending right from the eastern part of North-West India to Nagpur being brought under a light to moderately heavy rain the 24 hours ending 12.30 pm tomorrow (Wednesday). The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already put parts of Central India under watch for unseasonal thundershowers from today.

As per the ECMWF outlook, the area under watch should include Agra, Lucknow, Jhansi, Allahabad, Bhopal, Nagpur (some heavy showers expected here and adjoining Chhattisgarh) and most parts of North Chhattisgarh and valid until Wednesday noon.

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Hints at better spread

A closer look at the area put under ECMWF watch suggests thundershowers spreading out to Hindaun, Sawai Madhopur, Gwalior, Jhansi, Guna, Farrukhabad, Oral, Kanpur, Banda, Rewa, Singrauli, Jabalpur, Annupur, Ambikapur, Chhindwara, Gondia, Durg, Bilaspur, Sambhalpur and Rourkela.

In the South, most of Kerala and adjoining Coastal Karnataka (including Mangaluru and many parts of South Interior Karnataka) may witness thundershowers during this period. Likely to benefit also are Chikkamagaluru and Hunsur in Karnataka and into neighbouring Tamil Nadu along the Western Ghats across Udhagamandalam, Pollachi and Valparai.

Orange alert declared

The zone of thunderstorms extends to the seas to either side of the peninsula over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. In the process, it is likely that parts of the Lakshadweep Islands and the southern parts of the Andaman & Nicobar Islands (Bay of Bengal) may too get a lashing.

Earlier in the morning, the IMD had declared an orange alert concerning lightning and thunderstorms for Central India across the meteorological subdivisions of West Madhya Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh for two days from today (Tuesday) with a likely extension to the South-West.

‘Orange’ alert is a message to the public to stay prepared for inclement weather while the lower-grade ‘yellow’ alert requires them to be on the watch and await updates. On Tuesday, only West Madhya Pradesh is under yellow alert while the rest is under orange alert with no warning for Madhya Maharashtra.

Extending to South Peninsula

On Wednesday, all the met subdivisions plus Marathawada adjoining Madhya Maharashtra too is brought under orange alert. Additionally, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka join the list under yellow alert the same day as the inclement weather zone shifts further to the South from Central India.

On Thursday, the alert is lowered to yellow for West Madhya Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh while the contiguous Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Telangana, and North Interior Karnataka slips under the elevated warning protocol under orange alert, the IMD said.

First wave of thunderstorms

Isolated rain will happen on Friday over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Maharashtra as the first wave of unseasonal thunderstorms subside over the region. The Andaman & Nicobar Islands, the gateway to the wave emerging from the Bay of Bengal, have been receiving moderate to heavy rains already.

A prevailing feeble western disturbance will continue to cause isolated rainfall/snowfall over Uttarakhand for three more days. An Avalanche Warning Bulletin from the Defence Geoinformatics Research Establishment put Leh, Lahaul-Spiti, Kullu and East Sikkim under low danger (partly unsafe conditions, small triggering possible along extreme slops, movements here with care).

Avalanche warning for hills

But North Sikkim is under elevated medium level danger in the warning valid until this evening (unsafe conditions, triggering possible from the most avalanche-prone slopes and may reach the valley in medium size. Avoid movement on slopes. Routes should be selected with care. Valley movement with precaution and evacuate from unprotected settlements on/near the avalanche paths.)

Back to North-West India's plains, dense to very dense fog is likely over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi on Wednesday morning and the IMD hinted at a reduction in intensity and spatial coverage thereafter. Warmer night temperatures may continue over the plains for next 4-5 days.

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