The Nomura India Business Resumption Index inched up to 120.3 for the week ending January 2 from an upwardly revised 120.2 during the prior week 119.8 previously.

This was largely due to a 10.4 percentage points (pp) weekly rise in the Apple driving index, while the Google workplace mobility index fell by 6 pp and the retail and recreation mobility index rose by 0.6 pp. The labour participation rate inched down marginally to 40.6 percent from 40.7 percent in the prior week, and power demand fell by 3.1 per cent week-on-week after a 2.5 per cent rise the prior week.

“India seems to be on the cusp of a third wave. New daily cases rose to 33,750 yesterday from around 6,500 a week ago. Maharashtra, Delhi and West Bengal are at the forefront, but case numbers in other States are also rising sharply, with around 1,700 confirmed Omicron cases so far.

The vaccination pace rose to around 6.5 million/day in December from 5.4 million/day in November, with around 44 per cent of the population fully vaccinated,” Nomura said.

Swift rebound

“States have announced more restrictions, but elevated mobility and a rising positivity rate suggest a further rise in new cases. While early signs point to a lower mortality rate, it bears close monitoring. The restrictions could derail the recovery in contact-intensive services in Q1, but global experience suggests a smaller impact than previous waves and a swift growth rebound once cases peak,” it added.

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