Global oil trade routes are moving East, according to the International Energy Agency’s Oil 2018, the five-year market analysis and forecast.

An IEA statement said that Oil 2018 also examines crude quality issues arising from the rapid increase in US production, changing trade flows and a growing global refining capacity surplus.

“Global oil trade routes are moving East, as China and India replace the United States as top oil importers,” according to the IEA.

Crude oil production growth from the United States of America, Brazil, Canada and Norway can keep the world well supplied, more than meeting global oil demand growth through 2020, but more investment will be needed to boost output after that.

Over the next three years, gains from the US alone will cover 80 per cent of the world's demand growth, with Canada, Brazil and Norway able to cover the rest.

Post 2020, additional investment will be needed to spur supply growth as the oil industry is yet to recover from an unprecedented two-year drop in investment in 2015-2016. IEA sees little-to-no increase in upstream spending outside of the United States in 2017 and 2018.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director at IEA, said, “The United States is set to put its stamp on global oil markets for the next five years.”

“But as we've highlighted repeatedly, the weak global investment picture remains a source of concern. More investments will be needed to make up for declining oil fields - the world needs to replace 3 million barrels per day of declines each year, the equivalent of the North Sea - while also meeting robust demand growth,” he added.

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