Despite Omicron, India's economy remains on a recovery path: NIBRI

Our Bureau | | Updated on: Nov 29, 2021
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Mobility is almost back to pre-pandemic levels as Covid infection cases moderate

The Nomura India Business Resumption Index rose to yet another high of 114.5 for the week ended November 28 from a downwardly revised 113.4 in the prior week (from 114).

Google workplace and retail & recreation mobility rose by 3.6 percentage points (pp) and 1.6pp, respectively, while the Apple driving index eased marginally by 0.5pp. The labour participation rate improved to 40.5 per cent from 39.8 per cent in the prior week, while power demand recovered by 1.2 per cent w-o-w from 0.2 per cent previously.

"With domestic infection cases continuing to moderate, mobility is almost back to pre-pandemic levels, and this is boosting services. However, border reopening will likely be slow, as the discovery of the Omicron variant globally has prompted the Indian government to review and tighten its international travel guidelines, and several states are on alert" Nomura said.

Tourism is a relatively small share of the economy (tourism revenues stood at ~1.1 per cent of GDP in 2019), but continued normalization of domestic contact-intensive services is contingent on infection cases remaining low, as only around ~32 per cent of the population are fully vaccinated. "Despite the uncertainty triggered by Omicron, high frequency data suggest that the economy remains on a recovery path and inflationary pressures are building up," it added

Published on November 29, 2021

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