The Finance Ministry expects the economic growth in the current fiscal to improve to 5.5 per cent from 5 per cent last year on back of likely pick up in agricultural output on account of good monsoon rains.

“Following three quarters of sub 5 per cent growth, growth is expected to pick up from second quarter of 2013-14 resulting in full year growth of around 5.5 per cent,” said Quarterly Review 2013—14 (April—June) released by the Ministry.

Assuming a normal monsoon and global economic recovery, the Economic Survey had anticipated the growth to be in the range of 6.1 to 6.7 per cent for 2013—14 despite the low growth in previous fiscal.

“However, in contrast to expectations of a pick—up in economic activity, current macro trends indicate that a combination of global and domestic developments is likely to result in a shallow ‘U’ shaped recovery in 2013—14,” the document said.

It further said that looking at the production side, the growth numbers are likely to be aided by positive trends in agriculture. The 2013 monsoons started on a good note with rainfall for the period June to August being 11 per cent above normal, along with 9.1 per cent increase in crop sowing area.

Continuation of these trends coupled with the base effect, is likely to result in an above average growth of 4.5 per cent in agricultural and allied sectors in the current fiscal, it said.

“However, the improvement in the growth prospects for agriculture sector is likely to be offset by weak trends in other sectors. While current trends in industry are weak, recent project clearances and the pickup in coal production in recent months bodes well for mining and manufacturing activity,” the Ministry said.

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