India has been a bright star shining in an otherwise gloomy global economy. The Budget has stuck to the FRBM path and the ball is now in the RBI’s court. However, foreign investors seem to expect more reforms from the Narendra Modi government. Speaking to Bloomberg TV India, Rogers Holdings Chairman Jim Rogers said India needs more reforms like cutting government spending, reducing debt, further opening up of the economy and freeing of the currency.

At the end of last year, you were sounding very optimistic on the Modi government’s reform agenda. We have had a couple of Parliament sessions where there hasn’t been too much of movement as far as reforms go. But in the Budget session, there are a lot of legislative issues lined up. How are you viewing things?

I do not see any major changes but I do see lots of small changes since Modi has been empowered. I am happy to hear that there are going to be more. But we need major reform in India as it is going to be the world’s great power — it has been in the past and can be in the future.

Sanitation is a great thing and we all need it. We need more than that, like spending cuts. We need to open up the economy, we need to cut debt and free the currency. So there are major efforts that need to be done.

The rupee volatility has been reined in and it is trading in a narrow range. Do you expect the trend to continue or will the rupee see some growth?

The dollar is going to be much more important and is going to affect currencies everywhere including the rupee. I do not think it is the best. All emerging markets currencies are going to have problems when the world’s economic problems are merged. When we start having stock market collapses around the world later this year, all emerging market currencies are going to be under pressure including the rupee.

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has said that he is very comfortable where the rupee is right now — it is neither over-valued nor under-valued. In fact, he calls it the Goldilocks rate band. Will you agree with him?

Yes, he is a lot smarter than I am. So, yes, I certainly agree with him.

We have heard from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. We will hear the RBI’s stance in April. The expectation is that we possibly will not see much movement from the RBI as well. What is your own assessment of what the central bank Governor in India can say when we hear from him in April? What reaction or move do you expect from Rajan?

I suspect he would say very little and he will not do much because he has said what needs to be said in India. He does not have to react to the activities in the rest of the world. But in my opinion he will say very little and do very little because what I think is he has already set the things in motion that he expects and there is not much for him to do.

The commodity market appears to have stabilised a bit and crude oil prices have moved up a bit. Do you think crude found a bottom near $30 a barrel? Can we see a further downslide or will it rise going forward?

In the oil market, when you have a big collapse, normally you have a bounce, a big bounce. In America, we call it a dead cat bounce. Then after the bounce it goes back and tests the lows — they back to see whether they are solid or not. I suspect that will happen later this year. Something will cause a reaction. We will test the lows. At the end, we are heading towards a complicated bottom for crude oil at the end of 2016 and 2017.

So what’s the upside on oil prices? How much further can we see a rally?

It depends on war. If we have a war, who knows, then I suspect crude working its way up into $60 or $70 a barrel or eventually much higher as reserves continue to decline worldwide.

Gold has been rallying since the beginning of 2016. Is gold looking good?

I own gold but I am not buying gold at the moment. There will be another chance to buy gold later. If it happens, I hope to be smart enough to buy a lot more gold.

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