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India’s FY24 GDP growth is likely to be higher than the threshold 6 per cent despite reports that an El Nino climate pattern could trigger a drought, according to State Bank of India’s economic research report “Ecowrap”.
“We are also not overtly concerned regarding the recent news of El Nino. Looking at the relation between El Nino and Indian droughts since 1950, it is observed that India faced 13 droughts, and 10 of these were in El Niño years and one in a La Niña year.
“This indicates that there may not be a one-to-one correspondence between El Niño and Indian droughts and the recent fears seem misplaced,”said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI.
Referring to some meteorological agencies predicting the return of El Nino conditions in India this year, the finance ministry, in its monthly economic review, observed that if these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices.
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