India’s oil and gas import dependence is going to more than double by 2050, according to the bp Energy Outlook 2020. This is on the back of significantly higher domestic energy demand and a hastened transition to natural gas in order to offset coal.

“These oil and gas deficits in China and India persist in rapid, although to varying degrees. China’s combined net imports of oil and gas decline slightly by 2050, helped by a 50 per cent fall in Chinese oil demand. In contrast, India’s combined oil and gas imports more than double by 2050, driven in part by increased coal-to-gas switching which leads to a marked deepening in India’s dependence on imported liquified natural gas,” the bp Energy Outlook 2020 said.

“The disruptions associated with Covid-19, together with the increase in trade disputes and sanctions in recent years, may lead to rising concerns about energy security, particularly in countries which are highly dependent on energy imports,” the outlook augured.

Commenting on the Covid impact on the global energy scenario, the bp Energy Outlook 2020 said, “The central view used in the main scenarios it that economic activity partially recovers from the impact of the pandemic over the next few years as restrictions are eased, but that some effects persist. The level of global GDP is assumed to be around 2.5 per cent lower in 2025 and 3.5 per cent in 2050 as a result of the crisis.”

“These economic impact disproportionately affects emerging economies such as India, Brazil and Africa, whose economic structures are most exposed to the economic ramifications of Covid-19,” the outlook said.

Behavioural changes

The pandemic may also lead to a number of behavioural changes. “If people choose to travel less, switch from using public transport to other modes of travel, or work from home more frequently. Many of these behavioural changes are likely to dissipate over time as the pandemic is brought under control and public confidence is restored. But some changes, such as increased working from home, may persist,” the outlook added.