India’s demand for energy could increase more than four-fold in the next three-and-a-half decades if no efforts are made on the conservation front. But, “heroic efforts’’ made to contain demand, could cut down the increase by almost half.

These estimates have been made by an interactive data tool on the country’s energy security, launched by NITI Aayog on Thursday. The tool aims to help policy makers and stakeholders make informed choices for better energy planning for the future.

“This tool will be of particular use in the framing of the national energy policy being carried out by NITI Aayog,” said Arvind Panagariya, Vice-Chairman of the think-tank, at the launch organised by FICCI on Thursday. The Indian Energy Security Scenarios (IESS) 2047 (Version 2.0) calculator, housed within the NITI Aayog, will suggest measures to shift the energy pattern in a way to ensure advancement of the country’s energy security considerations.

“The calculator explores India’s possible energy futures across energy supply sectors such as solar, wind, biofuels, oil, gas, coal, and nuclear, and demand sectors such as transport, industry, agriculture, cooking, lighting and appliances,” said Anil Kumar Jain, Adviser (Energy), NITI Aayog.

It showcases the implications that various pathways may have on India’s energy security, land use, water costs and emissions.

The first version of the tool, launched last year, has already helped policy makers arrive at pathways toward meeting the developmental goals of the government, like the 2022 target of 175 GW from renewables and enhancing India’s energy security, Jain pointed out.

As per the new version, India’s demand for energy is likely to increase to 22,140 TWh (Tera Watt hours) in 2047 as opposed to 4,929 TWh in 2012 if the country does not make serious efforts to contain demand.

Determined efforts to contain demand could bring it down to 18,634 TWh in 2047, while heroic efforts on energy conservation would further lower demand to 12,436 TWh, according to the analysis done by the tool.

Similarly, import dependence is expected to rise to 84 per cent of energy consumption by 2047 from 31 per cent at present. However, if the country chooses the maximum clean and renewable energy pathway, the share of imports could reduce to 26 per cent.