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The Nomura India Business Resumption Index rose to another record high of 126.4 for the week ending March 20 from 122.8 in the previous week, 26.4 percentage points above its pre-pandemic levels. The pickup was broad-based.
”Google workplace mobility rose by 2.4 percentage points, retail & recreation by 3.1 percentage points and the Apple driving index by 11.7 percentage points from the previous week, with all mobility indicators above their pre-pandemic levels. The labour participation rate stood at 39.3 per cent on March 20 from 39 per cent in the prior week, while power demand rose by 1.8 per cent w-o-w vs 2.1 per cent,” Nomura said.
“It is too early to tell, but the growth impact of the ongoing war appears to be limited thus far. Domestic reopening is aiding a fast catch-up in services, while consumers have been shielded from rising global crude oil prices, with domestic retail pump prices frozen since early November,” it added.
“We expect the inflationary impact of the conflict to dominate GDP growth drag. A broad-based surge in food-energy costs and a narrowing output gap will likely keep CPI inflation above the RBI’s target (2-6 per cent) in 2022 (Nomura: 6.3 per cent). If domestic fuel prices remain untouched, then a higher fiscal burden (on- or off-budget) and a higher import bill are also likely (due to limited demand rationing),”Nomura said
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