The April 13 Assembly election in Tamil Nadu is likely to be fought most intensely at the level of the polling booth. Local political equations and field-level dynamics could have a greater bearing on the outcome than any one State-level issue.

While there is no dearth of talking points, with everything from the 2G scam to promises of freebies, there is no sign of a wave building for one or the other of the two major parties, the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, or the principal opposition, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

The DMK, led by Mr M. Karunanidhi, Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, is counting on the freebies and subsidies it handed out to counteract the ill-effects of perceived corruption and abuse of power. The AIADMK, with Ms Jayalalithaa at the head, is hoping to whip up the latent anti-incumbency factors to nullify any benefit the ruling party might derive from drawing attention to the welfare measures.

Both the DMK and the AIADMK have factored in the need to make up for the perceived shortfall in votes in specific regions. The DMK has covered its bases by tying up with the Vanniyar caste-based Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Dalit-based Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi in the northern districts, and brought in the Kongu Nadu Munnetra Kazhagam to bolster its chances in the western districts, where the AIADMK did very well in the 2009 Lok Sabha election.

In the AIADMK front, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam led by actor-turned politician Vijayakant, with a 10 per cent vote share, fills the role of the Congress in the DMK-led front with a more or less uniform spread of support across the State. The Left parties have their pockets of support, with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) strong in several urban constituencies, and the Communist Party of India enjoying support in some rural constituencies. Together, the parties have a vote share of about five per cent. The DMDK is contesting 41 seats, the CPI(M) 12 and the CPI 10.

Smaller parties

No party outside the two fronts is likely to win a seat. Yet, neither the DMK nor the AIADMK can be sure of being able to form a government without the support of the smaller allies. The DMK is contesting only 119 of 234 constituencies; in another five, smaller allies are contesting on its symbol. The party will find it next to impossible to win 118 seats for a simple majority. That demands a strike rate of more than 95 per cent.

On this front, the AIADMK is better placed. The party is fielding candidates in 160 constituencies, leaving 74 to its allies. But Ms Jayalalithaa did have to part with several winnable constituencies. What the party gained in terms of quantity, it lost in terms of quality as the allies bargained jointly for a better deal in the parcelling out of constituencies.

Coalition government

This means the 2011 election could open up the possibility of a coalition government for the first time in Tamil Nadu. Even in 2006, the DMK fell short of a majority, winning only 96 seats. But the Congress and the other allies did not press for a share in power. Now, the situation is different with the Congress having tried to wrest a pre-election commitment from the DMK on power-sharing.

In the AIADMK alliance, the Left parties are not interested in being part of the government; they view the alliance as a seat-sharing arrangement, no more than an electoral understanding. But, the DMDK, after having lost two elections in a row (the 2006 Assembly and the 2009 Lok Sabha polls) since its inception, is hoping to be able to have a say in the formation of the next government.

Political churning

While the alliance arithmetic may show a slight edge for the DMK front, especially with the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, formerly a part of the AIADMK front, deciding to boycott the polls, the anti-incumbency and voter fatigue could tilt the scales against it. The contests at many places are evenly matched and minor, local issues could be the clincher. The dots and the dashes, not the broad strokes, will make up the big picture in the 2011 election.

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