Subdued energy demand leads to decline in thermal generation: India Ratings

V Rishi Kumar Hyderabad | Updated on November 26, 2019 Published on November 26, 2019

Electricity generation declined 12.9 per cent YoY to 98.9 billion units. File photo   -  B Velankanni Raj

All-India energy supply declined 13.0 per cent YoY in October 2019

The all-India energy demand during October 2019 declined 13.2 per cent year-on-year (YoY) for the third consecutive month to 98 billion units (BUs) on account of an extended monsoon and a fall in energy demand from industrial states.

According to a report by Shreyas Vaidya of India Ratings, the demand from States such as Maharashtra was down 22.4 per cent YoY, Gujarat (down 18.8 per cent YoY) and Tamil Nadu (down 5.2 per cent YoY) due to the economic slowdown.

All-India energy supply declined 13.0 per cent YoY in October 2019, resulting in a reduction in energy deficit to 0.5 per cent (October 2018: 0.7 per cent).

On the supply side, electricity generation declined 12.9 per cent YoY to 98.9 BUs on a 19.3 per cent fall YoY in thermal generation to 78.7BUs due to lower demand. The thermal generation was impacted due to a 21.8 per cent YoY increase in hydro generation to 15.1BUs. The all-India thermal plant load factor (PLF) fell to 49.2 per cent in October 2019 (October 2018: 63.8 per cent) as central, state and private sector PLF decreased to 55.5 per cent (71.0 per cent), 40.9 per cent (60.4 per cent) and 51.0 per cent (60.8 per cent), respectively.

The short-term power price at Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) decreased to Rs 2.71/KWh in October 2019 (September 2019: Rs 2.77/KWh) from Rs 5.94/KWh in October 2018 on account of a fall in demand on the short-term power exchanges.

The difference in buy and sell bid volumes in October 2019 in day ahead market widened to negative 5,848 million units (MUs) (October 2018: 402MUs) on account of subdued demand.

After declining for four consecutive months, the coal production by Coal India Limited (CIL) increased to 39.4 million tonnes (mt) in October 2019. However, it was still 21.0 per cent down on a year-on-year basis owing to lower production at its key subsidiaries Mahanadi Coalfields Limited (down 34.9 per cent YoY) and South Eastern Coalfields Limited (down 30.6 per cent YoY) .The coal inventory at thermal power stations rose 88.6 per cent YoY to 19.0mt due to higher coal production and lower demand as coal offtake declined to 40.5mt (October 2018: 49.96mt). The coal availability at pithead and non-pithead plants on 31 October 2019 remained at six days and 14 days, respectively.

Transmission line addition has been lower in FY20 with 5,988 circuit kilometres added till October 2019 (April-October 2018: 11,799 circuit kilometres). The transmission line addition in October 2019 was 766 circuit kilometres (September 2018: 1,760 circuit kilometres) with 77 per cent of addition coming from the state sector.

Published on November 26, 2019

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