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Target: ₹1,200
CMP: ₹987.55
As per our channel checks, Oberoi Realty’s Thane launch has been pushed out to Q1-FY23 (likely in Apr’22) v/s our initial expectation of an early launch in Mar’22 as the company awaits approvals.
We had assumed ₹600 crore of sales from the Thane project in Q4-FY22, which will now spill over to FY23. While the delayed launch will impact our 4QFY22 presales/collections estimate, sales momentum in ongoing projects has largely remained intact.
As per registry data, both Feb’22 and Mar’22 (till date) have reported a 25-30 per cent rise in Mumbai property sales MoM. Total registrations are likely to end 35-50 per cent higher in Q4 than the rest of the quarters in FY22.
Project wise registration data till the beginning of Mar’22 for OBER indicates sales of 15-20 units across all projects, except Sky City, Borivali, which reported sales of about 75 units.
With a further pickup in momentum in Mar’22, we expect the quarterly run-rate across all projects to at least remain intact, if not increase further.
On the back of a delayed launch, we reduce our FY22 pre-sales estimate by 14 per cent, but increase the same by 4 per cent/7 per cent for FY23/FY24 to account for the spillover. The Thane launch; restart of sales in Three Sixty West, Worli; and progress on new land acquisitions are key near term triggers for the stock.
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