Domestic arabica raw coffee prices have increased by 25-30 per cent this year tracking global uptrend, but growers are guarded in their outlook to the price trend. Their caution stems from the fact that the prevailing inclement weather triggered by extended and intermittent rains, and cloudy weather may impact the harvest and quality of the produce.

“Prices are much better and it should help growers’ realisations, but the problem is the current crop is badly hit by rains. It is raining while we are harvesting now,” said S Appadurai, Chairman, Karnataka Planters Association (KPA)

Rainfall patterns

Key coffee-growing regions in Karnataka, which accounts for about 70 per cent of the country’s total output, have been receiving excess to largely excess rainfall during the post-monsoon period. From October 1 till November 8, Chikkamagaluru has received 84 per cent excess rainfall, while Kodagu has received an excess precipitation of 81 per cent and Hassan 57 per cent. The excess showers have impacted the harvest.

Interestingly, all the three coffee districts in Karnataka received deficit rainfall during the south-west monsoon this year. The rainfall deficit stood at 18 per cent in Chikkamagaluru, 23 per cent in Kodagu and 16 per cent in Hassan, according to data collated by the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre.

Raw coffee prices for the Arabica Parchment variety is hovering around ₹13,000 per 50 kg bag this year, up from the ₹10,000-10,500 levels in the same period last year. Similarly, Arabica cherry prices are hovering around ₹5,400-5,600 per bag compared with ₹3,575-3,750 levels a year ago.

“Though prices are better than last year, it is still early days. The damages to the crop due to the rains are not known. Moreover, cultivation costs including inputs such as labour wages and fuel have gone up, which may offset the gains,” said Jeffrey Rebello, Vice President, The United Planters Association of India (UPASI).

Rising prices

The International Coffee Organisation (ICO), in its latest report, said prices continued to rise during October despite improved weather conditions in Brazil. Prices reached new multi-year highs during October and the ICO’s Composite Indicator price was up 6.8 per cent over September. These price levels during coffee year 2020-21 mark a significant recovery from the low levels experienced over the three preceding coffee years, ICO said. Prices of other milds, a category in which the Indian Arabicas are categorised, also registered a 6.9 per cent increase in October.

“Yes, the prices are up, but we don’t know what’s the actual crop that we are going to get. The excess rains have led to ripened beans splitting and dropping on the ground, while growers are facing problems in drying the harvested produce, resulting in quality issues,” said BS Jayaram, an arabica grower in Chikkamagaluru.

HT Mohankumar, Chairman, Karnataka Growers Federation, said the climate change has become a big challenge. The uneven ripening of beans due to the inclement weather is leading to higher labour costs, he said. Further, Mohankumar suggested that the government should look at providing subsidies to help small growers, who account for 98 per cent of the holdings set up solar dryers.

While Arabica prices have seen a sharp increase, the rise in Robusta price has been a tad slow.

In Kerala’s Wayanad, the main coffee-growing region in the State, the weather pattern has been no different. “The intermittent rains and cloudy sky have led to uneven ripening. There are extra droppings this year due to the prolonged wet conditions,” said Prashant Rajesh of The Wayanad Coffee Growers Association. “The increased prices have not percolated much to the farmers due to end of season, no stock effect. Hopefully prices remain during the picking,” Rajesh said.

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