Foodgrain output in 2018-19 maybe 281.37 mt: Second Advance Estimate

India is heading for a record production of rice, the main cereal crop in 2018-19, despite a dismal performance of the monsoon.

The Agriculture Ministry’s second advance estimates has pegged the rice production at a record 115.60 million tonnes, about 2.38 per cent higher than the latest or fourth advance estimates for 2017-18. The bumper production is on account of substantial increase in production during the kharif season, estimated at 101.96 million tonnes. Also the area under rice during the rabi season has seen a major increase.

While rice output is seen rising, the production of other cereals and pulses are set for a decline. This is mainly on account of deficit rainfall triggering drought conditions across many states. Total food grain output for 2018-19 is estimated to be 281.37 mt, nearly 3.5 m t lower than last year’s latest estimates. The fourth advance estimates of 2017-18 had the foodgrains output last year was 284.83 mt. The India Meteorological Department said the country has a whole received 9 per cent lower than long period average of 89 centimetres.

Production of wheat, a key winter crop, may not cross 100 mt, as suggested by many officials earlier. The latest estimates projected it to be around 99 mt, a little shy of 99.7 mt produced last year.

Pulses production too is expected to hit as there is a substantial reduction in tur production is projected. As against 4.25 mt produced in 2017-18, this year’s production is slated to be 3.68 mt. Gram output too is expected to fall by 1 mt to 10.32 mt as compared to last year.

Oilseeds production is estimated to 31.5 mt. While soyabean and mustard output is estimated to be higher, groundnut production is expected to be seriously hit by adverse weather conditions, particularly in Gujarat. As against the set target of 9.07 mt, the groundnut production is projected to be 6.97 mt. The production of soyabean and mustard is estimated to be 13.69 mt and 8.4 mt respectively as against 10.98 mt and 8.3 mt in 2017-18.

Sugarcane production is projected to touch 380 mt as against 377 mt last year, indicating yet another year of higher sugar production. Cotton production, on other hand, has been severely hit the production is feared to come down by 4 million bales.

Drought conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka, two major coarse cereal growing States, seem to have adversely hit coarse cereals output. The production would be 42.64 mt as against 46.99 mt produced in 2017-18, according to the latest official estimates.

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