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Jeera prices increased by over 50 per cent to ₹47,570 a quintal so far this year due to consistent export demand, especially from China.
The quantity of cumin bought by China was significant enough to create a challenge in fulfilling the supply for exporters. In the past three weeks, China has purchased 300 to 350 containers of cumin from India.
Bangladesh has also made significant purchases of the commodity. Currently, the domestic demand for cumin was only 15 to 20 per cent compared to the regular demand.
Due to China’s heavy demand and a fall in cumin production, the stock of cumin in the country’s processing centres appears to be significantly low, said Kedia Commodities report.
With limited supplies when compared to the robust demand, the prices zoom, even though the profitability remains consistent. The estimated arrival of cumin crop in April was expected to be 5.5 to 6 million bags, but based on the April arrival figures, the expectation now is around 5 million bags, it said.
In Unjha, cumin arrivals were at 30,000 to 35,000 bags per day a month ago, but has now dipped to 7,000 to 8,000 bags per day. Rajasthan is also witnessing arrivals of 7,000 to 8,000 bags.
Around 60 to 65 per cent of the crop has already arrived in Rajasthan and it was about 65 to 70 per cent in Gujarat. Out of the estimated 50 million bags of cumin crop, 28 to 30 million bags have already reached the market.
Currently, there is a dip in domestic demand as it falls after the commencement mango season every year.
Despite the significant growth in cumin demand, the arrivals in Unjha and the entire country are not keeping pace, indicating upward trajectory in prices.
The cumin’s carry-forward stock was not more than 5 to 7 lakh bags. According to the research report, the strong export demand for Bakrid is likely to persist until May 20, which will result in the continuation of the upward trend in cumin until May 15.
The new crop from Syria and Afghanistan will arrive after June 15-20.
The cumin crop in Afghanistan is expected to be larger than the previous year. Furthermore, Syrian cumin traders predict a crop of 20,000 to 30,000 tonne, which would be the largest crop in the past ten years, provided that the weather remains favorable in Syria for the next month.
After May 20, the abundant cumin output from Syria will exert pressure on prices, the report said.
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