Pent up demand, fall in prices to drive gold this year: WGC

Gold demand this year is expected to be driven by pent up demand and fall in prices, even as the uncertainty over economic recovery looms large with job losses across sectors.

Initial data from the Dhanteras festival in November suggest that while jewellery demand was still below average, it had substantially recovered from the lows seen in June quarter last year, said the World Gold report.

The Council believes ballooning budget deficits, inflationary pressures, equity market corrections amid already high valuations will drive investors to consider gold as an investment avenue.

In this context, gold investment will remain well supported while gold consumption should benefit from the nascent economic recovery, especially in emerging markets, it added.

Gold may see a positive demand recovery of consumer demand relative to 2020 as economic conditions improve this year but will be more subdued. The performance may be boosted further by the prolonged low interest rate environment which would all but remove the opportunity cost of investing in gold.

Moreover, global economic relapse from Covid or any other unforeseen risks could result in weak consumer demand, thus creating a headwind for gold’s performance.

Somasundaram PR, Managing Director, India, World Gold Council said gold was one of the best performing assets last year given the unprecedented scale and degree of uncertainty.

However, lifetime high prices in all currencies and lockdowns in key global markets pushed consumer demand to its lowest levels.

In 2021, he said it will continue to see an interplay of many of these factors but underpinning a favourable environment in India for both gold price and demand.

The sharp 20 per cent rise in price of gold has now reset consumer expectations about a new normal. Higher risk of stock prices driven by liquidity, low interest rates, coupled with the inevitable return of family and social occasions and the experiential value of gold buying will release pent-up demand, said Somasundaram.

This could mimic the strong growth seen in 2010, following one of the sharpest dips in gold demand in 2009 due to the uncertainties created by global financial crisis, he added.

Innovative marketing efforts of big players and digital interventions are here to stay and all-round efforts to enhance trust in the jewellery industry to mitigate price impact will shape millennial behaviours positively towards gold, he said.