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India’s jeera (cumin seed) farmers may lose a golden opportunity of making it big in the global markets. The depreciating rupee and crop damage in competing countries — Turkey and Syria — are creating a positive export scenario, but water shortage in the major growing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan is casting a shadow on these prospects.
The jeera growing regions of Saurashtra and Kutch in Gujarat — the largest grower of the spice — are facing a rainfall deficit in the range of 28-75 per cent, while rainfall deficit in western and southern Rajasthan stands at about 23 per cent.
According to the Met Department, Kutch district has a rainfall deficit of 74 per cent followed by 28 per cent in Saurashtra. This puts the dependence on canal water supply from Sardar Sarovar Dam on Narmada river. But the storage levels of the dam too has come down due to less rainfall in the catchment area in Madhya Pradesh thereby jeopardising the sowing prospects.
Crop size
Arvind Patel, a sector expert and former Chairman of Unjha Chamber of Commerce expressed concerns about water shortage scenario curtailing jeera sowing by about 25 per cent from last year’s 7.80 lakh hectares in 2017-18 (advance estimates), of which 5 lakh hectares were in Rajasthan and 2.78 lakh hectares in Gujarat. “It is premature to comment on the crop size now, but looking at the water shortage scenario, the sowing may decline by 25 per cent. Given this condition, if the crop size shrinks equally, then the production next year will be lower at around 55 lakh bags. These factors keep the market firm at present,” said Patel.
Remunerative prices
On the NCDEX, jeera futures were at Rs 19,490 per quintal for near-month expiry against Rs 18,775 on October 1. Spot prices were at Rs 18,000-19,000. This is likely to lure farmers to take up jeera in the upcoming winter sowing season beginning from October 15.
“The existing price level is attractive for farmers to go for jeera crop. But due to water shortage, it is difficult to predict the growth and output of the crop. In the key jeera growing regions, it is almost a failed monsoon this year. The average rainfall in growing area is less than 25 per cent. We estimate that initially showing figures may be be may be be encouraging, but going forward, due to lack of adequate water, the crop may not sustain and the production may fall,” said Ashwin Nayak, President, Seed and Spice Stakeholders Association.
According to trade sources, there is still room for a further upside of Rs 500-1,000 a quintal before the sowing begins. Last year, the crop size was estimated at 70 lakh bags (each of 55 kg), of which total arrivals so far are seen at 55 lakh bags.
Exports boost
Market estimates put exports at about 1.25 lakh tonnes so far this year and there is a possibility of it touching a record 1.75 lakh tonnes by the end of this fiscal. The highest export volume was recorded at 1.55 lakh tonnes in 2014.
International prices are ruling at around $ 2,600-2,900 per tonne, which has come down from the earlier rate of $3,200. This way, the buyer countries get the spice at a cheaper rate, while Indian exporters still get a good price.
Following the robust exports, the carryover stock is expected to be negligible for the new season, which starts from February 2019.
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