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The rupee (INR) settled last session with a gain of 12 paise, that is, it closed at 73.30 versus preceding day’s close of 73.42 against the dollar (USD). Thus, the local currency looks to sustain above the key level of 73.50, indicating a bullish bias.
Appreciation from here can take the Indian currency to 73. A breach of this level can intensify a rally with the nearest resistance at 72.75. Above that level, it can touch 72.50. But if the domestic currency depreciates on the back of the resistance at 73, it can find support at 73.15 and 73.40. Subsequent support is at 73.50.
What continues to support INR is the substantial foreign inflows. On Wednesday, the net investments by the foreign portfolio investors (FPI) stood at ₹1,824 crore (equity and debt combined). As long as this inflows come in, it can put an upward pressure on the rupee.
Extending the downtrend, the dollar index declined last session and made a lower low of 89.56. The price action looks weak and the index can be expected to drop further. Today, after a marginal gap-down open, the index is currently trading at 89.66. It has already made a fresh low of 89.52 today, which is also the lowest in the last two and a half years. But the price level of 89.50 is a support which can help the bulls to put a fight against the downward pressure.
Trade strategy
The rupee has begun today’s session with a considerable gap-up at 73.15 versus previous close of 73.30. Though INR looks bullish, it has a critical resistance at 73 and the dollar index is hovering just above a support level. So, the uptrend can face difficulty in moving ahead. Also, the risk-reward ratio is in favour of rupee short positions. Hence, traders can sell INR with tight stop-loss of intraday.
Supports: 73.15 and 73.40
Resistances: 73.00 and 72.75
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