Forex

Yen declines on year-end US dollar demand

Reuters LONDON | Updated on March 31, 2020

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The dollar rose against the yen on Tuesday amid fiscal year-end demand by Japanese companies and the Chinese yuan stood firm after a survey showed manufacturing returned to growth in March.

Tuesday is the last trading day of Japan's fiscal year and the end of the quarter for major investors elsewhere, which has fuelled some volatility as big currency market players closed their books. The bulk of those positioning changes caused the dollar to strengthen.

“The talk is Japanese names are short of dollars, which is likely to keep the dollar bid well into London time,” said Yukio Ishizuki, FX strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

Against a basket of six other currencies, the dollar rose 0.4 per cent to 99.5. It reached 102.99, its highest in more than three years, earlier this month as a global market sell-off fuelled a rush for dollars. Dollar demand has ebbed, but analysts are still forecasting more dollar gains.

For the quarter, the dollar was the biggest gainer, rising 2.5 per cent. The Norwegian crown was the biggest loser, falling 19 per cent versus the greenback.

The dollar rose 0.52 per cent to 108.38 yen on Tuesday. The Chinese yuan was the only currency to buck the trend, holding firm against the dollar in both the onshore and the offshore market.

China's official manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index unexpectedly showed activity swung to expansion in March. China's economy is still expected to see a large contraction in the first quarter.

The euro fell 0.35 per cent to $1.1003 and sterling declined 0.88 per cent to $1.2310.

Broader market gauges of dollar funding and market volatility also declined from multi-year highs on Tuesday. Three-month currency swaps in euro-dollar flipped into a rare premium against the dollar.

Those volatile moves are probably a function of quarter-end flows rather than pointing to any structural imbalances in the FX markets, according to Kenneth Broux, a currency strategist at Societe Generale in London.

 

Published on March 31, 2020

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