Share Market Highlights 9th October 2024: Sensex closes at 81,634.81, Nifty closes at 25,013. Top gainers Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra

Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty pared early gains to settle lower on Wednesday due to late selling in index major Reliance Industries, ITC and HDFC Bank even as the RBI took the first step towards a rate cut in its monetary policy review.

Erasing its early gains, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 167.71 points or 0.21 per cent to close at 81,467.1. During the day, it surged 684.4 points or 0.83 per cent to hit an intraday high of 82,319.21.

The NSE Nifty dropped 31.20 points or 0.12 per cent to end at 24,981.95. In the intraday trade, it jumped 220.9 points or 0.88 per cent to hit a hit of 25,234.05.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday but took the first step towards a rate cut as it eased its relatively hawkish policy stance to ‘neutral’. 

The monetary policy committee, which included three RBI officials and an equal number of new external members, voted five-to-one to keep the benchmark repurchase or repo rate - which governs the interest rate of home, auto, corporate and other loans - at 6.5 per cent for a 10th straight policy meeting.

Among the 30 Sensex companies, ITC, Nestle India, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, Larsen & Toubro and HDFC Bank were among the major laggards.

On the contrary, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, State Bank of India, Maruti Suzuki India, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers.

On Tuesday, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose by 584.81 points or 0.72 per cent to close at 81,634.81. The NSE Nifty jumped 217.40 points or 0.88 per cent to finish at 25,013.15. (PTI)

What should be the strategy for gold this festive season?

Due to current market dynamics, a strategic approach to gold investment is essential this festive season. With gold prices hovering near all-time highs, driven by inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of central bank rate cuts, gold will continue its bull run. Gold can act as a hedge against inflation and market volatility, so diversifying your portfolio with a modest allocation to gold 15-20% could balance risk, especially with equity markets showing mixed signals. 

Although gold prices are elevated, they tend to fluctuate. Investors can adopt a “buy on dips” strategy, looking for temporary price corrections to enter the market at more favourable rates. For those seeking liquidity and convenience, Gold ETFs are an excellent option. They eliminate the costs and risks associated with physical gold storage, making them ideal for short- to medium-term investors. Additionally, Gold ETFs offer price transparency and are aligned with global gold prices.

The rupee traded in a narrow range and settled for the day higher by just 1 paisa at 83.96 (provisional) against the US dollar on Wednesday, after the Reserve Bank of India kept its key interest rate unchanged and shifted its stance to ‘neutral’ that may lead to a cut in benchmark rates in forthcoming policies.

Forex traders said the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy action was in line with street expectations. Moreover, a muted trend in domestic markets and positive US dollar weighed on investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.92 and finally settled for the day at 83.96 (provisional), higher by 1 paisa over its previous close of 83.97 against the dollar. (PTI)

Read more here.

Top gainers:

Cipla (2.58%), Trent (2.34%), Tata Motors (2.09%), SBI (1.84%), Tech Mahindra (1.77%) 

Top losers: 

ITC (-3.04%), Nestle India (-2.44%), ONGC (-1.69%), Reliance (-1.67%), Hindustan unilever (-1.45%)

Diamond Power Infrastructure has received a letter of intent from M/s Swastika Infra Private Limited contractor of Madhya Gujarat Vij Company Limited (‘MGVCL’) worth Rs. 109,38,60,000/ - for supply of Power Cables. 

Shares surge 4.95% to ₹1,365 on the BSE

JSW Infrastructure has received Letter of Intent from Maharashtra Maritime Board (“MMB”) for “Development, Operation, Management and Maintenance of an All Weather and Multipurpose Port at village Murbe in Palghar District of Maharashtra” on Public Private Partnership (PPP) basis – Design, Built, Own, Operate and Transfer (DBOOT) Model. 

Shares slip 0.95% on the BSE to ₹319.65

ITC (-2.92%), Nestle India (-2.53%), Hindustan unilever (-1.73%), Britannia (-1.66%), ONGC (-1.57%)

Cipla (2.70%), Trent (2.48%), Tata Motors (2.34%), SBI (2.10%), Shriram Finance (2.08%)

Stocks advanced on BSE at 3 pm on October 9, 2024, were 2,752 against 1,177 stocks that declined, and 94 remained unchanged. Total stocks traded were 4,023. The number of stocks that recorded a 52-week high was 179, and those that hit a 52-week low was 29. 

A total of 411 stocks traded in the upper circuit, and 171 in the lower circuit.

ADF Foods (14.06%), Thangamayil (11.78%), Divi’s Lab (8.58%), Symphony (6.65%), Torrent Power (5.55%)

Specific loan segments

The RBI is watchful with regard to risk in certain loan segments viz. loans for consumption, microfinance and credit cards.

The RBI is closely monitoring incoming data in this regard.

Banks need to carefully assess exposures to these segments in terms of size and quality. 

The RBI’s comments showcase that stress in unsecured lending segments such as credit cards and microfinance remains an ongoing theme and that the RBI deems these segments important enough for specific attention. Unsecured “consumption” loans also deserve monitoring, in the RBI’s opinion, and these would include sub-segments such as consumer durable loans and BNPL loans.

We have been cautious on banks like IDFC First Bank, RBL Bank and Indusind Bank, which have material exposure to the aforementioned segments. While these names have underperformed, it might be a tad early to upgrade these stocks.

Outlier NBFCs

Overall, the NBFC sector remains healthy.

However, there is a message to outlier NBFCs which are aggressively pursuing growth without adequate practices.

Some NBFCs, including some microfinance players, are pursuing excessive RoE through usurious interest rates, high charges and penalties.

The RBI is bilaterally engaged with such NBFCs.

Comments / Our take: The RBI’s commentary includes microfinance players and is another example of RBI’s focus on this segment, in general, from a regulatory standpoint.

Oberoi Realty (4.18%), Lodha (3.80%), Prestige (2.35%), Godrej properties (1.65%)

WPIL’s South African subsidiary, APE Pumps Pty Limited, has acquired 100% shareholding of Eigenbau Proprietary Limited, a contracting company specializing in water and wastewater solutions in Southern Africa. This acquisition strengthens WPIL’s presence in Africa and enhances synergies with APE Pumps.

Ceinsys has received Letter of Award worth ₹332 Cr from State Water and Sanitation Mission (SWSM), Water Supply and Sanitation Department (WSSD), Government of Maharashtra for Appointment of System Integrators (SI’s) for IoT Deployment including Design, Implementation & Maintenance with Centralized IoT Platform for Jal Jeevan Mission Projects in State of Maharashtra for Phase II. The project involves 2 years of implementation and 5 years of operations and maintenance (O&M).

Krishna Defence has secured an order worth ₹88.4 crore, to be executed in 18 Months, for the supply of Special Weld Consumables, designated for a highly critical platform. With this significant order its cumulative order wins for FY25 stands at ₹288 crore, equating to 2.7x of its last year’s total revenue.

RMC Switch, as the lead member of a consortium, has secured EPC and O&M contracts worth ₹201 crores for the development of solar power projects to solarize agricultural feeders in Maharashtra’s Ahmednagar district. The contracts include three separate EPC projects with three-year O&M agreements.

For the quarter ending Sep-24, Sales up 54% YoY from ₹3.24 crore in Sep-23 to ₹5 crore in Sep-24. Similarly, Net Profit up 2.2x from ₹0.95 crore to ₹2.06 crore. On a QoQ basis, Sales up 14% and Net Profit up 20%.

“RBI’s announcement was in line with our views. Given the rapid elevation of risk due to worsening geopolitical situation in Middle East, and its potential adverse impact on energy prices, inflation, currencies and global trade the Indian Central Bank has valid reasons to hold rates steady. The change of stance to neutral signals that the worst of inflationary phase is behind us barring the base effects which will kick in temporarily and a possible rate cut in Q4. 

The emphasis on our healthy forex reserve as well as the GDP forecasts re-affirms the resilience of our economy.”

“The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monetary policy update today, decided to maintain the repo rate at 6.5%, a decision that was expected given the persistent inflationary concerns, led by food price inflation. This reflects the RBI’s continued focus on managing inflation while supporting economic growth.

While the repo rate remains unchanged for the 10th time, the RBI has changed its stance from “withdrawal of accommodation” to “neutral,” with all 6 members of the monetary policy committee voting unanimously for the same. This is signaling the readiness to decrease the interest rates in the upcoming meetings, subject to a favorable inflation trajectory.

Food inflation is currently expected to ease as the weather has been favorable for Kharif crops, and also for the upcoming Rabi crops. While the upturn in commodity prices, especially crude prices, remains a key monitorable for gauging the upcoming inflation trajectory.”

Policy stance change likely to boost homebuying sentiment in low and mid-value segments.

“The country’s economic growth trajectory remains robust, and with rising inflation risks, the central bank has decided to maintain the policy repo rate while adjusting its policy stance. We welcome the shift to a neutral stance, as it opens the door for potential interest rate cuts in the near future.” 

“The real estate sector, particularly the housing market, has experienced strong growth over the past few years. This change in policy stance, along with the prospect of rate cuts, will provide crucial support to the low- and mid-value housing segments, which have seen reduced participation over the last 24 months. Homebuying sentiment remains strong, and with a healthy business environment, we anticipate that the trajectory of monetary policy in the coming quarters will further boost the sector’s growth momentum.”

“The recent decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% has provided stability to borrowing costs, which has positively impacted home sales. Despite expectations for a rate cut, the shift to a neutral stance suggests a possible mild rate cut in December 2024.

With the ongoing festive season, the unchanged repo rate combined with attractive offers from developers is expected to further boost home sales. The festive period is traditionally a peak time for real estate sales in India, and the current favorable conditions are likely to drive strong demand.

Looking ahead, the third quarter of the financial year 2024-25 is anticipated to be a period of robust growth for the residential real estate sector, with continued momentum in home sales”

“The announcements made by the RBI MPC are indications of the underlying strength of the economy. While the move by the RBI to keep the repo rate unchanged was on expected lines, the change in policy stance to ‘Neutral’ is an indication of a low rate regime. This coupled with lower inflation and the surplus system liquidity augurs well for the real estate industry. In our view, the change in policy stance will help start the rate-easing cycle sooner. The RBI Governor’s assurance on staying flexible and nimble to manage liquidity and inflation is a big positive.

These developments set the stage for a positive sentiment at the homebuyers’ front with a strong backdrop of enhanced liquidity in the hands of the masses. Lower rates will enhance homebuyers’ purchasing power. Indian real estate market is on a constant upward trajectory and we expect the demand to further intensify with the onset of the festive season.”

The shares of Premier Energies Limited were trading at ₹1,061.80 up by ₹47.50 or 4.68 per cent on the NSE, a day after Premier Energies International Private Ltd., a subsidiary of Premier Energies Limited, signed a Module Supply Agreement (MSA) with BN Hybrid Power-1 Private Limited, a Special Purpose Vehicle of BrightNight India. The deal involves the supply of 173.35 MWp of solar modules featuring Topcon technology for a 300 MW hybrid power project in Barmer, Rajasthan.

Indian stock markets extended their gains on Wednesday afternoon, buoyed by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to maintain the repo rate at 6.5 per cent and shift to a neutral stance.

The Nifty 50 climbed 133.20 points or 0.53 per cent to 25,146.35, while the Sensex rose 398.78 points or 0.49 per cent to 82,033.59 as of 12.33 pm. 

The RBI’s monetary policy announcement, which came during the trading session, was met with positive sentiment. Deepak Ramaraju, Senior Fund Manager at Shriram AMC, commented on the decision, saying, “The RBI stance has changed to neutral, indicating that its primary focus is to balance growth and inflation.” 

KPIT Technologies Limited has acquired an additional 13 per cent stake in N-Dream AG, a Swiss cloud-based game aggregation platform company, for €3 million. The transaction, announced today, increases KPIT’s total shareholding in N-Dream to 26 per cent. The shares of KPIT Technologies Limited were trading at ₹1,738 up by ₹24 or 1.40 per cent on the NSE today at 11.50 am.

Vedanta has received an order from the Customs Office, Tuticorin, confirming levy of penalty of Rs 92,03,85,745 and fine of Rs 10,00,00,000 along with demand of Customs Duty and applicable Interest. The demand confirmed is in relation to pre-import condition, which was applicable for a limited period, on imports against advance authorisation. 

Vedanta shares trade flat on the NSE at ₹499.10

In one of its largest settlements yet, SpiceJet has resolved a $131.85-million dispute with lessor Babcock & Brown Aircraft Management.

The parties have agreed to end the dispute, with SpiceJet agreeing to pay $22.5 million. “This landmark settlement allows us to significantly reduce our liabilities and reinforces our efforts to emerge as a more robust airline,” Chairman and Managing Director Ajay Singh said in a statement.

Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) will now be able to prepay loans without paying foreclosure penalty. Banks and NBFCs are not permitted to levy foreclosure charges or prepayment penalties on any floating rate term loan sanctioned to individual borrowers for non-business purposes. RBI has is now proposed to broaden the scope of these guidelines to include loans to micro and small enterprises.

While some banks do not impose any foreclosure charges on MSMEs, a few banks continue to do so. In most cases, foreclosure charges are between 2 perc cent-5 per cent of the pre-payment amount excluding taxes

Happiest Minds Technologies has launched Happiest Minds’ Secureline360, a solution designed to streamline incident response and provide real-time visibility to organisations across industries. The stock is up 1.02% on the NSE at ₹806.

The status quo on rates along with the regulator changing its stance to ‘Neutral’ from withdrawal of accommodation earlier was on expected lines. The RBI has maintained its growth and inflation estimates with minor tweaks. We believe a potential rate cut could be expected in Feb’25. Given the increasing anticipation of a rate cut in the upcoming meetings, margin pressures could act as a dampener for bank’s RoAs.

From a banking sector perspective, the upcoming Q2 results should replicate banks’ Q1 performance in terms of margins which are expected to moderate marginally. In contrast to Q1 performance, banks have seen an improvement in deposit growth on a sequential basis as per the provisional updates provided by banks, although the pace of credit growth has slowed down as banks look to align their credit and deposit growth. 

We believe some banks could see a downward revision in their credit growth estimates for FY25 driven by their attempt to maintain a balanced LDR, slower corporate growth pick-up and moderating credit in the unsecured segments. We would prefer banks that offer comfort on valuations, better asset quality profile and a healthy deposit franchise. Our preferred picks are ICICI Bank, SBI and Federal Bank.

Even as the overall health of non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) remains strong, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has observed that some NBFCs are aggressively pursuing growth without building up sustainable business practices and risk management frameworks, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in his Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statement today.

“RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged for the 10th straight time comes as per the industry expectations.

The big development was the change in policy stance that now indicates a low-rate regime in the near future. 

The FY25 inflation is projected at 4.5%, well within the RBI tolerance band. The MPC’s focus on addressing the system’s liquidity and managing inflation will help address concerns around it. The recent uptick in food, and metal prices may pose an upside risk for the CPI. Nevertheless, the GDP growth projection for FY25 at 7.2% shows that India’s growth story is on the right path and will continue to remain intact. Prolonged geo-political tension in the Middle East will continue to remain a big concern and could further lead to a slowdown in trade activities of gems and jewelry, which will only gain some stability once the situation is normalized.”

Top gainers: Shriram Finance (3.06%), Bajaj Finance (2.46%), Tata Motors (2.20%), Bharti Airtel (2.11%), Trent (2.10%)

Top losers: Nestle India (-2.16%), ONGC (-1.36%), ITC (-1.18%), Britannia (-1.09%), Hindustan Unilever (-0.68%)

Of 3,896 stocks traded on the BSE at 12 noon on October 9, 2024, 2.882 advanced against 901 stocks that declined, and 113 remained unchanged. While 160 stocks recorded a 52-week high, 26 hit a 52-week low. 

A total of 336 stocks traded in the upper circuit, and 152 in the lower circuit.

RBI MPC changes policy stance to neutral... Maidaan opens up for a rate easing ritual...

With status quo on rates, the RBI MPC unanimously voted for a policy stance change to neutral. Clearly a pivot towards potential rate easing action in the months ahead. The RBI has tried to maintain a balanced tone, which means its not a given that we see rate cut in December policy – looks like it will be more data dependent. With inflation well within RBI’s contours, and growth fumbling a tad, the outlook on rates remain constructive.

We expect bond yields to ease in the coming months and would continue to urge investors to enhance fixed income duration.

“RBI decided to keep the policy rate unchanged on the back of potentially higher inflation going forward due to a base effect from last year, higher food prices worldwide, and geopolitical conflicts. However they have changed their stance to “neutral” from the earlier one of withdrawal from accommodation, which bodes well for future rate cuts. While the 10 year bond has reacted by the yield falling by 7bps to 6.74%, the extent of the damage due to the base effect and near term food price rises will determine the future course of action. The actions in the middle east may also create imbalances that will drive rate changes by the RBI. However, growth projections remain strong at over 7% for FY 2025, and with surplus liquidity, there seems to be very few areas of stress. The policy has also improved RTGS/NEFT transfers by allowing banks to show the name of an account holder before a transfer is done, just like in UPI. This will reduce the stress in larger volume transfers.”

Glenmark Life Sciences said consequent to acquisition by Nirma Ltd, the board has approved name change from “GLENMARK LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED” to “ALIVUS LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED”

GLS stock trades flat on the NSE at ₹1,210.05.

In order to encourage wider adoption of UPI, RBI has decided to enhance the pre-transaction limit to ₹10,000 from ₹5,000 for feature phone users through UPI123 Pay.

UPI 123PAY is an instant payment system for feature phone users who can use the Unified Payments Interface in a safe and secure manner. Through UPI 123PAY, feature phone users can conduct transactions by calling an IVR (interactive voice response) number, app functionality in feature phones, missed call-based approach and also proximity sound-based system. This facility is now available in 12 languages. 

In line with our expectations, the central bank, in its latest meeting, kept rates unchanged by a majority of 5 to 1, while the committee unanimously decided to change its stance on liquidity to neutral. The Governor highlighted that while they have gained greater confidence in achieving the final stage of disinflation, they will remain focused on the inflation target while supporting growth. This comes as the RBI continues to express confidence in India’s growth prospects, keeping the annual GDP growth forecast unchanged, despite revising its Q2 FY25 projection lower from 7.2% to 7%.

On the inflation front, the central bank again kept its full-year forecast unchanged at 4.5%, but revised its Q2 forecast lower to 4.1% from 4.4%. It highlighted that the favourable base effects, which brought inflation lower in June-August 2024, would be reversed in September 2024, while higher food inflation momentum would also push headline inflation higher in the near term. However, better Kharif sowing, higher reservoir levels, and improved soil moisture mean that rabi sowing is also likely to improve, leading to lower food inflation towards the end of the current fiscal year.

While the overall outlook for both inflation and growth remains positive, upside risks are emerging from evolving geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as unexpected weather shifts—both of which are tail risks that the central bank continues to monitor. The improved balance between growth and inflation has warranted a change in the stance from restrictive to neutral.

*Our Take:* As highlighted in our preview note, the change in stance was expected. This signals the start of an easing cycle, but as Governor Das emphasised, while the inflation “horse” has been brought back into the stable, the central bank will be cautious in opening the gates, lest the horse leaps out again. The latest set of growth and inflation projections from the RBI suggest they are confident that growth will sustain. Combined with the increase in the Q3 FY24 inflation projection, this implies they are willing to maintain the current stance and may wait to see further inflation reductions later in the fiscal year.

We believe that if macro indicators continue to remain weak through October-December 2024, the probability of a rate cut in December 2024 will increase. However, if growth picks up—now that the monsoon season is over and government spending resumes—the central bank may wait until February 2025 before cutting rates.

Trent has issued clarification with regards to a news items related to Zudio beauty, and the launch of a jewellery range. 

The company “has a presence in the beauty and personal care category through related offerings in existing Westside and Zudio stores. The said portfolio is extended through select Zudio beauty stores on a pilot basis.” “Related to launch of a jewellery range, we wish to inform that the company presents its offerings in Westside through multiple own brands. Also, Westside already has presence in the fashion and lifestyle accessories category. The said portfolio is extended by launch of the POME jewellery in select stores. The same is also a pilot, consistent with our articulated strategy for Westside.”

Trent shares climbed 2.50% on the NSE to ₹8,242.65.

Tata Technologies and BMW Group on Tuesday announced the official launch of their joint venture, BMW TechWorks India, which will innovate automotive software, including software defined vehicles (SDV) and digital transformation solutions for business IT.

Shares rises 1.38% on the NSE to ₹1,058.40.

The Nifty 50 began today’s session higher at 25,066 versus yesterday’s close of 25,013. It inched up after opening and is now at 25,130, up 0.5 per cent.

The advances/ declines ratio of the benchmark index currently stands at 34/16, a bullish sign. Shriram Finance, up 4 per cent, is the top gainer, whereas Nestle India, down 4 per cent, is the top loser.

In line with Nifty 50, the mid and small-cap indices have appreciated so far today. Also, most of the sectors are in the green. Nifty Realty, up 2.2 per cent, is the top sector, whereas Nifty FMCG, down nearly 0.8 per cent, is the weakest. Read more

Premier Energies International, subsidiary of Premier Energies, has entered into a Module Supply Agreement (MSA) with BN Hybrid Power-1 for the supply of 173.35 MWp of solar modules featuring the latest Topcon technology.

Premier Energies stock is up 1.16% to ₹1,026.10 on the NSE

Kalpataru Projects International has entered into a definitive agreement(s) for sale of its entire 100% stake in Vindhyachal Expressway Pvt Ltd (a wholly-owned subsidiary) to Actis Atlantic Holdings Ltd.

KPIL shares up 1.45% on the NSE to ₹1,342.75.

Mahindra Logistics board has approved investment in the equity shares of MLL Express Services Pvt Ltd (“MESPL”), wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, up to an amount not exceeding Rs. 50 crore by way of subscription to rights issue by MESPL of up to 5,00,00,000 equity shares of Rs. 10 each, at par. The full amount of the issue price will be payable on application in cash. 

The Mahindra Logistics stock rose 2.61% on the NSE to ₹492.70

Track the Tata Motors share price live here

“The recent inclusion of India in the FTSE Russell Emerging Markets Bond Index, following its earlier addition to the JP Morgan Index, marks a series of transformative developments for the country. These are significant milestones that will have a long-term impact on India’s economic landscape”.

“One of the primary advantages is the increased demand for government bonds, providing the government with more flexibility to raise funds. This could allow India to expand its fiscal deficit and fund critical capital expenditure, especially during economic slowdowns. Furthermore, this inclusion will help improve the capital account surplus, ensuring a steady inflow of foreign currency into India. This, in turn, brings stability to the Indian rupee, which is crucial for both the equity and bond markets”.

“A stable currency is beneficial for the equity market because it reduces the foreign investors’ expected returns. For example, if currency depreciation decreases from 4% to 2%, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) would lower their return expectations by 2%, potentially driving a rally in the stock market. The same logic applies to the corporate bond market, where FIIs may increase their investments as currency stability preserves their returns”.

“Overall, these developments are highly positive from a long-term perspective, strengthening the government’s ability to support growth in times of adversity. This is a significant boost to India’s financial and economic prospects”.

JM Financial rises 3.33% on the NSE to ₹141.91. CCI has cleared JM Financial’s proposed acquisition of a 43 per cent stake in JM Financial Credit Solutions Ltd, an RBI-registered systemically important non-deposit-taking non-banking finance company (NBFC).

Stock market opened higher on Wednesday ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s policy meeting, at which the central bank is expected to stand pat on interest rates. The Nifty 50 index was up 0.21 per cent at 25,065.8 points as of 9:15 a.m., while the S&P BSE Sensex added 0.39 per cent to 81,954.58. 

The RBI is expected to keep key policy rates unchanged for a tenth consecutive meeting amid inflationary pressures, but the central bank’s hawkish ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ policy stance and comments will be under scrutiny.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to conclude the three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting today, with Governor Shaktikanta Das expected to announce the central bank’s decision on policy rates. The meeting, which began on October 7, has garnered significant attention, as the RBI has maintained the repo rate at 6.50 per cent for the past nine consecutive meetings, adopting a cautious stance to balance inflationary concerns with the need for economic growth. Read more

Mahindra South East Asia Ltd has been incorporated in Thailand as a subsidiary of Mahindra Overseas Investment Company (Mauritius) Ltd. (“MOICML”), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mahindra & Mahindra.

M&M shares trade flat on the NSE at ₹3,174.20

Alembic Pharmaceuticals has completed the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) inspection for its Oncology (Injectable and Oral Solid) Formulation Facility (F-2) located at Panelav. The inspection was completed without any Form 483 observation. 

Shares climb 3.17% to ₹1,286.40 on the NSE.

KPIT Technologies has acquired said additional 13% shareholding in N-Dream for cash consideration as below post completion of all closing conditions: 

 Euro 2.3 million as primary investment and 

 Euro 0.7 million as secondary investment 

Shares rise 1.18% on the NSE to ₹1,734.25.

Arvind SmartSpaces Ltd (ASL) has signed a new residential apartment project in Bengaluru, with a total estimated saleable area of ~4.2 lakh sq. ft. and a top-line potential of ₹600 crore. This project is located on ITPL Road, near Whitefield, Bengaluru. The project has been undertaken on joint development basis.

The Arvind SmartSpaces stock trades at ₹818 on the NSE, higher by 3.02%.

Top gainers: Shriram Finance (2.85%), BPCL (2.32%), Tata Motors (2.28%), Bajaj Finance (1.94%), Tech Mahindra (1.81%)

Top losers: ONGC (-1.81%), Britannia (-0.88%), ITC (-0.79%), HDFC Bank (-0.79%), HDFC Bank (-0.75%), Nestle India (-0.69%)

Crude oil futures traded higher on Wednesday morning after witnessing more than 4 per cent fall on Tuesday. However, reports of an increase in crude oil inventories in the US limited the gains. At 9.17 am on Wednesday, December Brent oil futures were at $77.45, up by 0.35 per cent, and November crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $73.74, up by 0.23 per cent. October crude oil futures were trading at ₹6200 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Wednesday against the previous close of ₹6244, down by 0.70 per cent, and November futures were trading at ₹6168 against the previous close of ₹6208, down by 0.64 per cent.

IDFC futures and options (all expiries) will cease to exist from tomorrow. The contracts will be settled physically as per today’s closing . You are requested to close open positions by 12 noon today to avoid any RMS actions

Upgrade to BUY, TP Rs 4700/sh

Valued at 30x Sep-26E PE + Rs320 cash/sh

Recently-concluded monsoons lifts outlook for upcoming crop cycles

Industry base turning favorable Kubota’s intent to increase sourcing from India key mid-to-long term driver

Buy, TP Rs 980

Time to get back onboard; top sector pick

SBI should continue to deliver well on asset quality

Relatively well-placed amid both tougher deposit conditions & potential rate cuts

Attractive valuations at 1x FY26F P/BV (6.7x P/E)

Upgrade to BUY, TP Rs 4700/sh

Valued at 30x Sep-26E PE + Rs320 cash/sh

Recently-concluded monsoons lifts outlook for upcoming crop cycles

Industry base turning favorable Kubota’s intent to increase sourcing from India key mid-to-long term driver

Last date for trading- IDFC Ltd. - last day of trading before merger

India: MPC policy outcome (Unchanged Expectations)

US FOMC Minutes

IRB Infra, Varun Beverages, Fortis Healthcare board to mull fundraising

Vedanta board meet for interim dividend

Citi on Divis Lab: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 6400/Sh (Positive)

CLSA on Bharti Airtel: Maintain Outperform on Company, target price at Rs 1820/Sh (Positive)

CLSA on Ashok Ley: Maintain Underperform on Company, target price at Rs 188/Sh (Neutral)

Thursday, 10 October, 2024 (Tomorrow)

Derivative Segment

• TCS Limited

Cash Segment

• Anand Rathi Wealth Ltd.

• IREDA

• Tata Elxsi Ltd.

Friday, 11 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

Nil

Cash Segment

• Just Dial Ltd.

Saturday, 12 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

Nil

Cash Segment

• Avenue Supermarts Ltd.

• Network 18 Media Ltd.

Monday, 14 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

Nil

Cash Segment

• Angel One Ltd.

Tuesday, 15 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• HDFC AMC Limited

• HDFC Life Limited

Cash Segment

Nil

Wednesday, 16 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• Bajaj Auto Limited

• LTTS Limited

• MphasiS Limited

Cash Segment

• CRISIL Ltd.

Thursday, 17 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• Havells India Limited

• Infosys Limited

• Nestle India Limited

• Polycab India Limited

• Wipro Limited

Cash Segment

• Ceat Ltd.

Friday, 18 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• ICICI Lombard Limited

• L&T Finance Limited

Cash Segment

• Aether Industries Ltd.

Saturday, 19 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• HDFC Bank Limited

• Tech Mahindra Limited

Cash Segment

Nil

Monday, 21 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• UltraTech Cement Limited

Cash Segment

• Jana Small Finance Bank Ltd.

• Maharashtra Scooters Ltd.

Tuesday, 22 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• Bajaj Finance Limited

• Coforge Limited

• M&M Financial Services Limited

• Max Financial Services Limited

• Persistent Systems Limited

Cash Segment

• Zensar Technologies Ltd.

Wednesday, 23 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• Asian Paints Limited

• Bajaj Finserv Limited

• Navin Fluorine Limited

• Pidilite Industries Limited

• Syngene International Limited

Cash Segment

• Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd.

• KPIT Technologies Ltd.

• Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd.

Thursday, 24 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• United Breweries Limited

Cash Segment

• Bikaji Foods International Ltd.

• Castrol India Ltd.

• CIE Automotive India Ltd.

• CSB Bank Ltd.

• Cyient Ltd.

• Nippon Life India Ltd.

Friday, 25 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• Atul Limited

• Chola Inv & Fin Limited

• JSW Steel Limited

Cash Segment

• JM Financial Ltd.

• Mahindra Holidays Ltd.

• Mahindra Lifespace Ltd.

• Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd.

• UTI AMC Ltd.

Saturday, 26 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• ICICI Bank Limited

• IDFC First Bank Limited

• JK Cement Limited

Cash Segment

• Yes Bank Ltd.

Monday, 28 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

Nil

Cash Segment

• CAMS Ltd.

• Gillette India Ltd.

• Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd.

Tuesday, 29 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• Cipla Limited

• Marico Limited

Cash Segment

• Honeywell Automation Ltd.

Wednesday, 30 October, 2024

Derivative Segment

• Biocon Limited

• Dabur India Limited

Cash Segment

• Procter & Gamble Ltd.

• TTK Prestige Ltd.

Monday, 4 November, 2024

Derivative Segment

• ABB India Limited

• Exide Industries Limited

Cash Segment

• Amara Raja E&M Ltd.

• Procter & Gamble Ltd.

Tuesday, 5 November, 2024

Derivative Segment

• Berger Paints (I) Limited

• Dr. Reddy’s Lab Limited

Wednesday, 6 November, 2024

Cash Segment

• Blue Star Ltd.

• Endurance Technologies Ltd.

• Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd.

Thursday, 7 November, 2024

Derivative Segment

• Cummins India Limited

Cash Segment

• Indigo Paints Ltd.

Friday, 8 November, 2024

Derivative Segment

Nil

Cash Segment

• Esab India Ltd.

• Latent View Analytics Ltd.

Monday, 11 November, 2024

Derivative Segment

• Hindalco Industries Limited

• SHREE CEMENT LIMITED

Cash Segment

Nil

Tuesday, 12 November, 2024

Derivative Segment

• Bosch Limited

Cash Segment

• BASF India Ltd.

• Suven Pharmaceuticals Ltd.

IDFC Finance Bank Ltd (Transferee Company)

Symbol : IDFCFIRSTB

Stock Price : 73.20 

IDFC Ltd (Transferor Company)

Symbol : IDFC 

Stock Price : 110.00 

Last date of trading of IDFC Ltd : 09-Oct-2024 (Today)

Record Date: 10- Oct -2024

Ratio : 155:100 (For every 100 shares held in IDFC Ltd, 155 shares of IDFC Finance Bank Ltd will be given).

New Light Apparels Ltd

Stock Split From Rs.10/- to Rs.1/-

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 74.7

Ex-Split 10 Oct 2024 (Tomorrow)

Last date for Cum-Split Today

Nomura on HDFC AMC: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 5000/Sh (Positive)

Nomura on Nippon Life: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 785/Sh (Positive)

Nomura on SBI: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 980/Sh (Positive)

Emkay on Escorts: Upgrade to Buy on Company, raise target price at Rs 4700/Sh (Positive)

Citi on IGL: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 620/Sh (Positive)

Nuvama on Phoenix Mills: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 1857/Sh (Positive)

Nuvama on TRIL: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 980/Sh (Positive)

MS on Torrent Power: Maintain Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 2260/Sh (Positive)

MS on Reliance Ind: Maintain Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 3325/Sh (Positive)

Jefferies on Insurance Stocks: ICICI Lombard continues to outperform as it remains key beneficiary of reduced competitive intensity (Positive)

Nomura on UTI AMC: Initiate Neutral on Company, target price at Rs 1300/Sh (Neutral)

CLSA on HDFC Bank: Maintain Hold on Bank, target price at Rs 1725/Sh (Neutral)

FTSE Russell has added India to the FTSE Emerging Markets Government Bond Index (EMGBI), with inclusion starting in September 2025. FTSE Russell announced that the Market Accessibility Level for Indiawill be reclassified from 0 to 1. ^“This decision reflects the continued progress in the accessibility of the market for these securities for international investors and the growing importance of the Indian government bond market in mainstream global emerging markets bond portfolios. FTSE Russell thanks the Reserve Bank of India for its continued dialogue and commitment to facilitating international investment in its local market,” FTSE Russell said in a press release.

The initial public offering of Garuda Construction and Engineering that opened on Tuesday saw a strong response from HNIs and retail investors. At the end of Day 1, the IPO was subscribed 1.91 times. The IPO came out with a price band of ₹92-95 a share. The ₹264-crore IPO consist of a fresh issue of 1.83 crore equity shares worth ₹173.85 crore and an offer of sale (OFS) of 95 lakh equity shares by promoter PKH Ventures. The IPO closes on October 10.

The Competition Commission of India has cleared JM Financial’s proposed acquisition of a 43 per cent stake in JM Financial Credit Solutions Ltd, an RBI-registered systemically important non-deposit-taking non-banking finance company (NBFC). It is a subsidiary of JM Financial Ltd (JMFL). It is engaged in wholesale lending activities with a primary focus on real estate financing and corporate financing. Read more

▫️ After a period of three years on its watchlist, FTSE Russell has announced that Indian sovereign bonds will be added to its Emerging Markets Govt Bond Index (EMGBI), following in the footsteps of JPMorgan GBI-EM and Bloomberg EMLC GBI.

▫️ Inclusion will begin from Sep’25 in a phased manner over a six-month period, with FAR-eligible securities being added. India’s share is estimated to be 9.35% of the index on a market-value weighted basis.

▫️ Contrary to market chatter of AUM tracking the index being as high as USD4.6tn, our assessment (based on conversations with some index providers) is that FTSE EMGBI is tracked by not more than USD40bn of AUM (likely lesser), implying not more than USD4bn of passive flows and some subsequent active flows for us

We note that India has received substantial debt flows already in FY25 (~USD11bn) on the back of previous index inclusions since the formal inclusion.

▫️ This action completes India’s addition into the three major global EM bond indices, with FTSE noting progress on accessibility of Indian bonds for foreign investors as a key reason for its inclusion now. 

It also possibly sets up India for inclusion in the Bloomberg Global Agg index (AUM tracked approx USD2.5tn) next year

▫️Structurally, the impact of this inclusion is additional positive, adding further credibility for FPIs, and will help improve liquidity and ownership base of G-Secs while also reducing India’s risk premia/cost of funding across the cost curve, including corp bonds even more.

1. ⁠Shivalic Power Control: BUSINESS UPDATE

Company has reported a 72% growth in revenue from INR 310 Cr in H1FY24 to INR 535 Cr in H1FY25.

2. ANI Integrated: ORDER

Company has received 1 Purchase Order from Engineers India Limited for empanelment for hiring of Human Resources (Other Than Modellers) of Engineers India Limited within India. Maximum Value of Services which can be allocated to the agency per year shall be INR 157 Cr and limited to INR 173 Cr for three years.

3. AVG Logistics: CONVERSION OF WARRANTS

Two warrant holders who have been allotted the convertible warrants dated february 27, 2024 have paid the balance 75% of the consideration aggregating to INR 7.2 Cr and have applied for exercising their right for conversion of 2,60,000 warrants into equivalent number of Equity Shares.

4. BLS International: AGGRESSIVE HIRING

Employee count on the EPFO portal increased by 66%, rising from 338 in April to 563 in August 2024.

5. Transformers & Rectifiers: EXCELLENT RESULTS

For the quarter ending Sep-24, Sales up 79% YoY from INR 257 Cr in Sep-23 to INR 461 Cr in Sep-24. Similarly, Net Profit up 23x from INR 2 Cr to INR 46 Cr. On a QoQ basis, Sales up 43% and Net Profit up 2.2x.

* BIRLASOFT 

* BANDHANBANK 

* GNFC 

* GRANULES 

* HINDCOPPER 

* IDFCFIRST 

* MANAPPURAM 

* PNB 

* RBLBANK

* SAIL

Torrent Power: Company has secured two Letter of Awards from MSEDCL for a total of 2,000 MW Energy Storage Capacity from Pumped Hydro Storage Plants (Positive)

Phoenix Mills: Consumption in Q2 FY25 at Rs. 3,289 cr, up 25% over Q2 FY2 (Positive)

Olectra: Emerges lowest bidder for supplying 327 electric buses to Himachal Pradesh Govt. Boosting eco-friendly transportation Strengthening sustainable infrastructure. (Positive)

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories: Company subsidiary announces promising Phase 1 results for autologous CAR-T cell therapy (Positive)

IRFC: Company Board approved financing of 20 BOBR Rakes to NTPC for Rs 700 Cr under Finance Lease. (Positive)

Aarvi Encon: Company gets order worth Rs 1.73 billion (Positive)

Infosys: Company and Old National Bank have expanded their four-year partnership. (Positive)

GR Infraprojects: Company subsidiary, GR Bilaspur Urga Highway Private Limited, has achieved provisional completion of the 4-laning project on NH-130A in Chhattisgarh. (Positive)

PNB Gilts: Indian government bonds to be included in the FTSE EM Government Bond Index (Positive)

IRBInfra: September toll collections up 19.2% at ₹501.8 cr vs ₹421 cr (YoY) (Positive)

Tata Technologies: Company and BMW Group establish BMW TechWorks India - a Joint Venture to drive automotive software and business IT innovations. (Positive)

Welspun Ent: Receives Rs 1990 cr award from BMC for tunnel project (Positive)

VBL: PepsiCo reported a double-digit revenue growth in India and other emerging markets for the third quarter, despite subdued overall growth globally. (Positive)

Vedanta: Board meeting rescheduled to today for interim dividend announcement (Positive)

Gensol Engineering: Company’s engineering, procurement, and construction order book crosses the Rs 4,000 crore level (Positive)

RPP Infra: Company bags Rs 318.6 crore contract for road development. (Positive)

Tata Communications: Company will announce its Q2 FY25 results on October 17th, 2024. (Neutral)

Wipro Limited: Company will announce its Q2 FY25 results on October 17, 2024 (Neutral)

Dhunseri Ventures: Company enters into share purchase agreement with Dhunseri overseas for $ 4.7 million (Neutral)

JSW Infrastructure: Company announced the appointment of Rinkesh Roy as Joint Managing Director & CEO, effective November 8, 2024. (Neutral)

SKF India: Company board approved evaluation, selection of demerger of industrial business, Company approved incorporation of wholly owned subsidiary. (Neutral)

Reliance Ind: Reliance Retail’s Tira exclusively launches Augustinus Bader in India. (Neutral)

Schneider Electric: Company’s appeal against ₹2.2 crore tax demand for FY18 rejected. (Neutral)

Signature Global: Pre-sales at Rs 2,780 cr vs Rs 980 cr, up 184% YoY (Neutral)

PB Fintech: IRDAI issues observations from inspection for wholly owned arm Policy Bazaar (Neutral)

OLA Elec: Ministry of road transport & highways may seek explanation from Ola Electric regarding customer complaints, sources to CNBC. (Negative)

Timken: Company said it has received a demand order from the Income Tax Department, requiring an additional ₹100 crore in income adjustments for the assessment year 2021-22. (Negative)

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.intelegain.rb

Recent Interview...

As of 18:32 PM Tuesday 08 October 2024

Antony Waste Handling: NG Subramanian, CFO

Have Bid For Orders Worth ?5,000 Cr & May Win ?2,000-2,500 Cr Worth Of Orders: Antony Waste Handling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXZLuEdB9lI

HEG: Manish Gulati, ED

Bought GrafTech Stake As Valuations Were Attractive: HEG

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqfdprpDtGQ

Hi Tech Pipes Limited: Anish Bansal, CFO

Have Received Good Demand For QIP From Both Domestic & Foreign Funds: Hi-Tech Pipes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pua2pjoR3I

NALCO: Sridhar Patra, CMD

Aluminium Prices Are Expected To Be In The Range Of $2,300-2,500/t: Nalco

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIpv20xPC_w

Blue Star: B Thiagarajan, MD

Online Vs Offline Sales: What Will Reign? What Blue Star & Vijay Sales Expecting? Festive Fever

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsjM4TJXyyI

Bikaji Foods: Manoj Verma, COO

Will See Category Growth Due To Quick Commerce: Bikaji Foods

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glPEPNKMAno

Jupiter Life: Ankit Thakker, CEO

Currently Focussed On The Western Part Of The Country: Jupiter Life Line

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMrrQ2f-9uU

Kotak Mahindra: Ashok Vaswani, MD & CEO

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s New MD & CEO Ashok Vaswani’s Growth Blueprint

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL-x25GHZ3E

Senco Gold Limited: Suvankar Sen, CEO

Fund Raise Is Primarily For Working Capital & To Add 18-20 Stores Annually: Senco Gold & Diamonds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmOC8T6Mr9g

Titagarh Rail: Umesh Chowdhary, Vice Chairman & Managing Director

Titagarh Rail: Co Adjusts Wagon Contract, What’s Going To Steer Growth For Biz?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yB05lc5q2sk

Events today…

https://www.researchbytes.com/Default.aspx?cc=event

Results today…

https://www.researchbytes.com/Default.aspx?cc=result

Replays available at www.researchbytes.com

Nomura initiate coverage of HDFC AMC (HDFCAMC IN, Buy) with a TP of INR5,000 (implying 21% upside), NAM (NAM IN, Buy) with a TP of INR785 (24% implied upside), and UTI AMC (UTIAM IN, Neutral) with a TP of INR1,300 (8% implied upside).

8 October 2024

Provisional Cash Rs. In Crs.

FII/FPI: NET SELL: -5729.6 

(14774.19 - 20503.79) 

DII: NET BUY: +7000.68 

(19494.71 - 12494.03)

Key Takeaways

Geopolitical risks, the US election, and 2025 policy uncertainty are prime concerns for us through October-November.

India remains our largest OW. We raise Australia to OW as a defensive play. We scale back our UW China position for the pan Asia / EM investor to -50bps.

Our Japan OW is also reduced to +50bps. Policy continuity is now signalled by Ishiba-san but Japan is sensitive to both global growth and oil price risks.

We increase our UW positions on Korea and Taiwan to -150ps each, while adding to our OW positions on Brazil and South Africa.

After a strong recovery on Tuesday, domestic markets are expected to open on a flat note on Wednesday. Gifty Nifty at 25,150 indicates a flat opening. All eyes will be on the RBI monetary policy outcome today. Though a status-quo is widely expected, any cut in interest rates will trigger an immediate rally in the stocks, especially in rate-sensitive sectors such as banking, realty and automobiles. 

Ola Electric, an electric two-wheeler manufacturer receives a show-cause notice from the Central Consumer Protection Authority (CCPA) on October 7 for alleged violation of consumer rights, misleading advertisement, and unfair trade practices.

With gold and diamond prices touching new high, large corporates are venturing into lab grown diamond jewellery as a cheaper alternate to masses. 

Indian automaker Tata Motors global wholesale including Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) witnessed an 11 per cent decrease in Q2FY25. The global wholesales stood at 3,04,189 vehicle units. 

Wipro Consumer Care and Lighting (WCCL) is piloting its entry into traditional snacks by expanding its packaged foods portfolio with a range of traditional South Indian offerings under the Granamma brand. 

GTPL, LOTUSCHO, RHETAN, WCIL

Q2FY25 EARNING CALENDAR 10.10.2024

ARKADE, DEN, GMBREW, IREDA, TATAELXSI, TCS

10.00 INDIA RBI Interest Rate Decision (Expected: 6.5% versus Previous: 6.5%)

12.00 INDIA RBI Press Conference

20.00 U.S. FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks

23.30 U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes

Sohan Lal Commodity Management (SLCM), India’s largest post-harvest logistics and agri-solutions company, has announced a strategic partnership with Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Bandhan Bank to provide ‘Unified Collateral Management Solutions,’ aimed at facilitating post-harvest credit for farmers and agricultural stakeholders at competitive rates across the country. Read more

Infosys and Old National Bank a commercial bank headquartered in the Midwest, recently entered into a strategic expansion of their four-year collaboration to enable the latter to leverage Infosys services, solutions, and platforms for operations transformation and process digitization powered by automation and GenAI, and transformation of key business areas.

Government Securities (G-Secs) yields softened on Tuesday on expectation of their inclusion in FTSE Russell’s Emerging Market Bond Index and possibility of the RBI’s rate setting panel voting for a change in the monetary policy stance.

Essar Energy Transition (EET) will turn the UK’s Stanlow facility into the world’s first decarbonised green refinery that will consume blue hydrogen to meet its heating and power requirements, Essar Capital Director Prashant Ruia said on Tuesday. Read more

The gross direct premium for all non-life companies during the first half of this fiscal grew 7 per cent to ₹1,53,895 crore as against ₹1,43,802 crore recorded during the April-September 2023 period. However, in September 2024, there was a 6.5 per cent decline in total premium income to ₹27,551 crore from ₹29,476 crore in the same month last year.

The stock of Ami Organics has been steadily gaining since mid-August. But after marking a high of ₹1,820 two weeks ago, it reversed the direction. Although the price moderated, the scrip stayed above key levels. Notably, on Tuesday, the stock rebounded on the back of the 20-day moving average support at ₹1,610. Read more