Stocks

Asian shares hit 1-week low on renewed virus scare, inflation worry

Reuters Sydney | Updated on July 19, 2021

Oil prices fall more than 1% on oversupply fears

Asian shares slipped to a one-week low on Monday and perceived safe haven assets, including the yen and gold, edged higher amid fears of rising inflation and a surge in coronavirus cases, while oil prices fell on oversupply worries.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.1 per cent for a second straight day of losses to 677.45, a level not seen since July 12. The index was on track for its biggest daily percentage drop since July 8.

Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.3 per cent as did Australia's benchmark share index. South Korea's KOSPI was 1 per cent lower, while Chinese stocks also started on the back foot with the blue-chip index down 0.6%.

Oil prices stumbled more than 1 per cent after an agreement over the weekend within the OPEC+ group of producers to boost output at a time when the outlook for demand is still cloudy.

Global economic growth is beginning to show signs of fatigue while many countries, particularly in Asia, are struggling to curb the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus and have been forced into some form of lockdown. The spectre of elevated inflation, which the market has long feared, is also haunting investors.

Economists at Bank of America downgraded their forecast for US economic growth to 6.5 per cent this year, from 7 per cent previously, but maintained their 5.5 per cent forecast for next year.

"As for inflation, the bad news is it's likely to remain elevated near term," they said in a note, pointing to theirlatest read from their proprietary inflation meter which remains high.

"The good news is ... we are likely near the peak, at least for the next few months, as base effects are less favourable and shortage pressures rotate away from goods towards services."

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly said any inflation flare-up is expected to be transitory, indicating monetary policy will remain supportive for some while yet.

Yet, markets remain hard to convince.

Currencies and commodities

Aviva Investors, the global asset management business of Aviva plc, expects rapid growth and inflation to put some upward pressure on long-term sovereign bond yields.

"As such, we prefer to be somewhat underweight duration,mainly through US treasuries," said Michael Grady, head of investment strategy and chief economist at Aviva Investors."Overall, we have a neutral view on currencies."

Action in the currency market was muted on Monday. The dollar was mildly firmer against a basket of major currencies at 92.712.

Against the safe haven yen, the dollar was down 0.2 per cent at 109.90, edging closer to the recent one-month trough of 109.52.

The euro was mostly flat at $1.1801.

The risk-sensitive Aussie slipped to $0.7372, the lowest since last December during early Asian trading.

Equity performance in recent days underscored investor nerves.

MSCI's all-country world index, a gauge of global shares scaled a record peak last week but finished it 0.6 per cent lower. On Friday, the Dow closed down 0.9 per cent, the S&P500 slipped 0.75 per cent, and the Nasdaq lost 0.8 per cent.

These losses came despite stronger-than-forecast US retail sales last week, which rose 0.6 per cent in June, contrary to an expected decline.

Next on investors' radar is June quarter corporate earnings with Netflix, Philip Morris, Coca Cola and Intel Corp among companies expected to report this week.

Bank of America analysts forecast an 11% earnings beat,which they say would help refuel investor confidence in broader economic recovery and drive a rotation back into so called"value" stocks, which currently trade below what they are actually worth.

Elsewhere, gold, a perceived safe haven asset, inched up with spot prices at $1,815.4 an ounce.

Brent crude was down 90 cents to $72.69 a barrel. US crude slipped 83 cents to $70.98 a barrel.

Published on July 19, 2021

Follow us on Telegram, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube and Linkedin. You can also download our Android App or IOS App.

This article is closed for comments.
Please Email the Editor

You May Also Like