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Just a month ago, global funds could not wait to dump India’s sovereign bonds. Now, they are rushing back at the fastest pace in more than two years.
Foreigners bought ₹13,670 crore($1.9 billion) of the debt in the first two weeks of February, set for the highest monthly inflow since June 2017, according to data compiled by Bloomberg . They sold ₹10,660 crore last month.
Policy changes
The sudden switch is a testimony to the unprecedented changes introduced by policy makers.
In an attempt to fund record borrowings, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is lifting foreign investment limits on some bonds, while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has introduced long-term reverse repurchases to lower borrowing costs.
The RBI’s policy bias has supported inflows and contributed to the strong rally in the shorter tenors, said Stuart Ritson, a fund manager for emerging-market debt at Aviva Investors in Singapore. “The fiscal and inflation backdrop is challenging, but RBI policy should help support the market.”
After five interest-rate cuts in 2019 failed to jump-start a slowing economy, the RBI has taken to unconventional policies.
It first used a Federal Reserve style-like Operation Twist, and then on February 6 added a measure similar to the European Central Bank’s Long-Term Refinancing Operation as surging inflation restricts more rate cuts.
Shorter-tenor bonds have been the biggest beneficiaries of RBI’s plan to inject as much as $14 billion through one- and three-year funding operations
Foreign holdings of sovereign debt due in 2024, with a coupon of 7.32 per cent, rose to about 11 per cent on February 14 from 7 per cent on February 5. The yields fell 31 basis points in that period, compared with an 11 basis points drop in the benchmark 10-year bond.
Attracting inflows
India is attracting inflows just as Indonesia, Asia’s other major high-yielding bond market, sees outflows. Foreign funds sold $835.3 million of Indonesian debt so far in February on concern the coronavirus outbreak may impact Chinese demand for the nations exports.
“Indian bonds are very attractive in the context of Asian bonds, given their high yields and lower volatility that increase risk-adjusted returns,” said Lin Jing Leong, a Singapore-based investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd. “Bond markets will certainly be supported due to RBI’s long-term repo operations and more policy easing,” he said.
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