Markets Live: Sensex crashes 713 points to 34,960; Nifty slumps below 10,500

Closing bell

Benchmark indices crashes 2 per cent as exit poll results have concerns raised concerns over the ruling BJP winning the state elections. Investors were scrutinising the exit polls in five states - Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telengana, Mizoram - for clues to how Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party will fare in a general election that must be called by May.

The S&P BSE Sensex crashed 713.53 points or 2 per cent to 34,959.72 and the Nifty 50 plunged 205.25 points or 1.92 per cent to 10,488.45. The Sensex tanked to intraday low of 34,915.77 and the Nifty slumped to 10,475.45.

Sensex gainers, losers

Barring Coal India and Maruti, all other 30-share Sensex constituents ended in the red.

Among BSE sectoral indices, realty plunged 3.15%, infrastructure 2.44%, capital goods and banking 2.04% each.

Election results will be out on Tuesday, though exit polls, which have often proved unreliable in India, showed the BJP heading for defeat in one heartland state, Rajasthan, while Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh were too close to call.

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“The exit polls are mixed, but we don't want to take any risk before actual results are out given that oil is also up,” said a trader at a foreign bank. “Sentiment will remain cautious until state election results are out.”

The bearishness was reinforced by higher crude oil prices as OPEC and some non-affiliated suppliers had last Friday agreed to a supply cut from January. The rupee eased to 71.44 per dollar, its weakest since November 20. It recovered marginally to 71.23, but was still weaker than Friday's close of 70.80.

European stocks tumble

Simmering tensions between the US and China dented European shares on Monday as investors fled risk at the start of a highly uncertain week with Britain's parliamentary vote on Brexit looming. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.8 per cent to hit a two-year low once more by 0830 GMT, with Britain's FTSE 100 down 0.3 per cent. Read more

MCX gold

Gold prices fell Rs 38 to Rs 31,557 per 10 gram at the futures trade as speculators reduced their exposure despite a firm trend in precious metal overseas. Read more

Rupee slumps to 71.44

The rupee depreciated 63 paise to 71.44 against the US dollar due to heavy capital outflows from the domestic equity market as exit polls have raised concerns over the ruling BJP winning the state elections. Read more

Brent crude rises to $62/barrel

Brent crude oil futures rose after producer club OPEC and some non-affiliated suppliers had last Friday agreed to a supply cut from January. Despite this, the price outlook for next year remains muted on the back of an economic slowdown. International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.03 per barrel at 0748 GMT, up 36 cents, or 0.6 per cent, from their last close. Read more

Forex market

The dollar consolidated losses after posting its biggest weekly drop in more than three months last week as weak US data undercut expectations of more interest rate increases in the world's biggest economy. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was flat after falling 0.8 per cent last week, its biggest weekly drop since late August. Read more

Pre-close trade

The S&P BSE Sensex crashed 706.73 points to intraday low of 34,966.52 against the previous close of 35,673.25 and the Nifty50 plunged 207 points to 10,486.70 against 10,693.70 as exit poll results have raised concerns over the ruling BJP party winning the state elections.

Exit polls have predicted a photo-finish in the politically critical Madhya Pradesh, edge for the Congress in Chhattisgarh and a clean sweep for it in Rajasthan. Investors are scrutinising the exit poll results in five states - Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telengana, Mizoram - for clues to how Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party will fare in a general election that must be called by May.

The ballot counts for the state contests are expected to end on Tuesday, though exit polls, which have often proved unreliable in India, showed the BJP heading for defeat in one heartland state, Rajasthan, while Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh were too close to call.

“The exit polls are mixed, but we don't want to take any risk before actual results are out given that oil is also up,” said a trader at a foreign bank. “Sentiment will remain cautious until state election results are out.”

The bearishness was reinforced by higher oil prices following an agreement by global producers to cut output, which will drive up India's import bill. The rupee eased to 71.45 per dollar, its weakest since November 20. It recovered marginally to 71.23, but was still weaker than Friday's close of 70.80.

Jet Airways drops over 6%

Shares of Jet Airways on Monday dropped over 6 per cent as ICRA has downgraded the airline’s long-term rating. After a negative opening on the BSE, the scrip further declined 6.6 per cent to hit an intra-day low of Rs 258.05. Read more

Kotak Bank tanks over 7%

Shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd dropped as much as 7.2 per cent to Rs 1,188, their worst intraday percentage fall since October 1 as the private-sector bank has filed a petition with the Bombay High Court challenging the central bank’s decision to not allow its promoter to issue preference shares to reduce stake. Read more

Sensex gainers, losers

Barring YES Bank, Maruti and NTPC, all other 30-share Sensex constituents were trading in the red.

Nifty gainers, losers

Mid-session trade

The S&P BSE crashed 658.94 points to intraday low of 35,014.31 and the Nifty 50 slumped 196.35 points to 10,497.35 as exit poll results have raised concerns over the Bharatiya Janata Party winning the state elections.

The bearishness was reinforced by higher oil prices following an agreement by global producers to cut output, which will drive up India's import bill. The rupee eased to 71.45 per dollar, its weakest since Nov. 20. It recovered marginally to 71.30, but was still weaker than Friday's close of 70.80.

The ballot counts for the state contests are expected to end on Tuesday, though exit polls, which have often proved unreliable in India, showed the BJP heading for defeat in one heartland state, Rajasthan, while Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh were too close to call.

Crisil reverses from a key base

The stock of Crisil gained almost 3 per cent last week, breaching a key resistance at ₹1,500. This rally underpins bullish momentum and the stock can continue to trend upwards in the short term. The long-term trend has been down for the stock since recording a new high at ₹2,490 in October 2016. Click here to read more

Passenger vehicle sales down

Domestic passenger vehicle sales declined 3.43 per cent to 2,66,000 units in November from 2,75,440 units in November 2017. Domestic car sales fell marginally to 1,79,783 units from 1,81,435 units in November 2017. Read more

India's growth 'very solid': IMF chief economist

India’s growth has been “very solid” over the past four years, IMF’s Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld on Sunday said, praising the fundamental economic reforms like the GST and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code carried out by the government. Click here to read more

Direct tax collections surge

Gross direct tax collections surged 15.7 per cent to Rs 6.75 lakh crore for April-November. Refunds worth Rs 1.23 lakh crore have been issued in the eight months of the current fiscal, which is 20.8 per cent higher than refunds issued in the same period last year. Read more

Kotak Bank files writ petition

With days left for Kotak Mahindra Bank to meet the Reserve Bank of India’s deadline for dilution of promoter stakeholding, the private sector lender has filed a writ petition with the Bombay High Court. Read more

Benchmark indices were trading down by over 1.5 per cent as exit polls in state elections augured badly for the ruling BJP government just months before a national vote. The bearishness was reinforced by higher oil prices following an agreement by global producers to cut output, which will drive up India's import bill.

The S&P BSE Sensex was trading lower by 551.89 points or 1.55 per cent at 35,121.36 and the Nifty 50 down 167.05 points or 1.56 per cent at 10,526.65.

Financials accounted for the biggest share of losses on the NSE index by late morning, with HDFC Bank Ltd falling as much as 2 per cent in its sharpest intraday drop in six weeks.

Oil-to-retail conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd , down as much as 4.5 per cent at its lowest since November 13, was the biggest drag on the index.

The rupee eased to 71.45 per dollar, its weakest since November 20. It recovered marginally to 71.30, but was still weaker than Friday's close of 70.80. The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose to 7.52 per cent from 7.46 per cent on Friday.

“The exit poll results are definitely slightly more towards the negative side than what the markets were expecting,” said Neeraj Dewan, director, Quantum Securities.

Investors are scrutinising Friday's polls in five states - Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telengana, Mizoram - for clues to how the Bharatiya Janata Party will fare in a general election that must be called by May.

If Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling party were to win a second term at the coming general election without having to resort to forming a potentially unstable coalition, it would reassure investors wanting to see a continuation of financial reforms.

The ballot counts for the state contests are expected to end on Tuesday, though exit polls, which have often proved unreliable in India, showed the BJP heading for defeat in one heartland state, Rajasthan, while Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh were too close to call.

“The exit polls are mixed, but we don't want to take any risk before actual results are out given that oil is also up,” said a trader at a foreign bank. “Sentiment will remain cautious until state election results are out.”

Oil bill rising

Oil prices extended gains on Monday after OPEC and its Russia-led allies agreed to slash production by a combined 1.2 million barrels per day next year. A sharp fall in oil since October had brought some relief to Indian markets during the past few weeks, and the sight of prices rising again was unsettling.

India imports more than two-third of its oil requirement and higher crude prices adversely affects its current account deficit and inflation, and consequently the rupee exchange rate. _ Reuters

Tata Motors hits 7-year low

Shares of Tata Motors Ltd fell as much as 3.08 per cent to Rs 157.4, lowest since October 10, 2011. The stock has broken below a support at Rs 160.1, the 76.4 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend from November 21, 2011 low to September 7, 2016 high. Read more

NSE index breaks support at 10,527

The NSE Index has broken below a support at 10,526.87, the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci projection level of the downtrend from August 28 high to October 26 low. Monday's decline suggests that the correction that started on August 28 (wave(4)) has not yet completed.  Read more

Gulf Oil Lubricants India (₹798.5): Buy

Investors with a medium-term perspective can buy the stock of Gulf Oil Lubricants India at current levels. The stock encountered a key resistance at around ₹1,095 in early February 2018 and began to decline. Since then, it has been on an intermediate-term downtrend. However, the stock found support at the long-term base level of ₹700 in late October this year. Read more

Nifty losers, gainers

Gold steady near 5-month peak

Gold traded firm near a five-month peak, supported by a disappointing US jobs data that fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates sooner than expected. Spot gold was steady at $1,247.80 per ounce, as of 0103 GMT. Read more

Unicorn of central banking

The US central bank is on a quest for a mythical goal: keeping steady economic growth without allowing inflation to catch fire. This so-called soft-landing is the unicorn of central banking, rarely if ever seen. Click here to read more

FPIs pull out nearly Rs 400 cr in 5 sessions

File photo

 

Foreign investors have pulled out close to Rs 400 crore from the Indian stock market in the last five trading sessions amid weakness in global equities, due to the arrest of a high-profile Chinese executive. FPIs withdrew a net amount of Rs 383 crore from equities from December 3-7. Read more

M-cap of top-10 Sensex cos

Six of the 10 most valued Indian companies together lost Rs 54,916.4 crore in market valuation last week, with Reliance Industries taking the biggest hit. ITC, HDFC Bank, SBI, HDFC and ICICI Bank were the other companies that witnessed a decline in their market capitalisation (m-cap), while TCS, HUL, Infosys and Kotak Mahindra Bank finished with gains for the trading week ended Friday. Read more

Benchmark indices were trading down by nearly 2% as investors turned jittery over exit poll results ahead of outcome of state elections, weak rupee, rising crude prices amid escalation in US-China trade tensions.

The S&P BSE Sensex slumped 604.51 points or 1.69 per cent to 35,068.74 and the Nifty dropped 187.5 points or 1.75 per cent to 10,506.20.

Exit polls have predicted a tight finish between the BJP and the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and a win for the Opposition party in Rajasthan.

Click here to read more

Top five Sensex losers were Reliance, YES Bank, Adani Ports, PowerGrid and L&T, while the only two gainers were TCS and IndusInd Bank.

Among BSE sectoral indices, realty fell the most followed by infrastructure, capital goods and power.

The rupee slumped 59 paise to 71.40 as global crude oil prices rose after OPEC members and 10 other oil producing nations had agreed on Friday to cut the output by 1.2 million barrels a day to boost prices. International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.21 per barrel at 0218 GMT, up 54 cents, or 0.9 per cent, from their last close.

Global stocks extended their slump, with US equity futures and Asian shares sliding on worries over slowing growth and fears that a fresh flare-up in tensions between Washington and Beijing could quash chances of a trade deal.

Gold kick-starts Santa Claus rally

The strong break above $1,240 has strengthened gold’s bullish momentum. The global spot gold ($1,249 per ounce) may now find strong support in the $1,240-1,235 region. Dips to this support zone is likely to find fresh buyers. Gold can test $1,257 in the near term.  Click here to read more

Will the Lok Sabha election impact market?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi

 

The polling for electing members of the 17th Lok Sabha is about to begin in a few months and psephologists and political analysts are already working over-time, trying to understand and interpret voter behaviour. The outcome of the State Assembly elections of Rajasthan, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Chattisgarh, will also be closely scrutinised to provide clues about voters’ inclinations. Click here to read more

Asian markets

Global stocks extended their slump, with US equity futures and Asian shares sliding on worries over slowing growth and fears that a fresh flare-up in tensions between Washington and Beijing could quash chances of a trade deal.

Investors were also bracing for a Tuesday vote on British Prime Minister Theresa May's European Union divorce deal, which looks set to be rejected by Parliament, raising fears of a chaotic exit in March.

S&P futures fell 0.8 per cent and Dow futures lost 0.8 per cent in the Asian day. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 1.4 percent to a near three-week low. Read more

Top 10 Nifty losers

Indiabulls Housing slumped 3.94%, Reliance 3.56%, UltraCement 3.27%, Bajaj Finance 3.15% and Adani Ports 2.96% .

Among NSE sectoral indices, realty fell 2.39%, media 2.17%, metal 2.05% and financial services 1.71%.

The S&P BSE Sensex slumped 565.03 points to intraday low of 35,108.22 against Friday's close of 35,673.25 and the Nifty 50 dropped 185 points to 10,508.70 against 10,693.70.

All 30-share Sensex constituents were trading in the red. Among them, Reliance fell 3.45%, Adani Ports 3.36%, Coal India 2.45% PowerGrid 2.44% and Bharti Airtel 2.35%.

Among BSE sectoral indices, infrastructure fell the most by 2.39% followed by realty 2.36%, power 2.18% and oil & gas 2.02%.

Opening bell

The 30-share BSE index Sensex slumped 435.65 points to 35,237.6 against the previous close of 35,673.25 and the 50-share NSE index Nifty dropped 154.25 points to 10,552.90 against the previous close of 10,693.70 as exit polls have predicting a photo-finish in the politically critical Madhya Pradesh, edge for the Congress in Chhattisgarh and a clean sweep for it in Rajasthan.

Click here to read more

Global stocks extended their slump, with US equity futures and Asian shares sliding on worries over slowing growth and fears that a fresh flare-up in tensions between Washington and Beijing could quash chances of a trade deal.

S&P futures fell 0.8 per cent and Dow futures lost 0.8 per cent in the Asian day. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 1.4 per cent to a near three-week low.

Weekly Trading Guide

SBI (₹275.4)

SBI fell, breaking below the key support level of ₹279 in the past week. The stock was down 3.1 per cent. An important trend-line support is near the current levels at ₹272. Whether SBI sustains above this support or not will decide the direction of the next move. As long as the stock trades above ₹272, there is a strong likelihood of an up-move to ₹284 in the near term. A break above ₹284 can take the stock higher to ₹293 and ₹294. A strong break above ₹294 is needed to turn the outlook to bullish again. Such a break will boost the momentum and increase the possibility of the stock targeting ₹311 over the short term. On the other hand, if SBI breaks below ₹272, it will come under renewed pressure. In such a scenario, a fall to ₹263 and ₹260 is possible. Medium-term traders holding long positions at ₹282 and ₹279 should remain cautious. Retain the stop-loss at ₹269 for the target of ₹308. Revise the stop-loss higher to ₹287 as soon as the stock moves up to ₹291.

ITC (₹274.1)

After moving up for two consecutive weeks, ITC reversed sharply lower last week. The stock tumbled over 4 per cent, giving back all the gains made in the previous two weeks. ITC has been broadly range-bound between ₹271 and ₹293 over the last two months. The stock tested ₹271 — the lower end of the range last week — and has bounced slightly from there. The price action in the coming days will need a close watch to get a cue on the next move. If it manages to sustain above ₹271 and gains momentum, the sideways movement between ₹271 and ₹293 will remain intact. In such a scenario, an up-move to ₹280 is possible in the near term. A break above ₹280 will then increase the likelihood of the stock moving further higher to ₹285 and ₹290. On the other hand, a decline decisively below ₹271 can put pressure on it. Such a break can trigger fresh selling in the stock and drag it to ₹263. A further break below ₹263 will then increase the possibility of the stock tumbling towards ₹253 in the coming weeks.

Infosys (₹681)

Infosys extended its up-move for the second consecutive week. The stock is up 2 per cent. The 100-day moving average resistance at ₹687 has restricted the upside all though last week. A strong break above this hurdle is needed for the stock to move up further. The next target is ₹697 — a crucial Fibonacci retracement resistance level. A break above it will take the stock initially to ₹706. A further break above ₹706 will then increase the likelihood of the stock extending its up-move to ₹720. On the other hand, if Infosys fails to breach the 100-day moving average resistance level of ₹687, it can fall to ₹665 or ₹657 in the near term. A range-bound move between ₹657 and ₹687 can be seen for some time. A breakout on either side of ₹657 or ₹687 will then determine the direction of the next move. A break below ₹657 can drag the stock lower to ₹642 — the 200-day moving average support. A strong break below ₹642 will increase the downside pressure and can take the stock lower to ₹620 or even ₹610.

RIL (₹1,133.2)

RIL has been oscillating up and down over the last few weeks. The stock fell over 5 per cent during intra-week and made a low of ₹1,109.1. It has, however, bounced from the low to close 3 per cent lower for the week. The crucial support in the ₹1,110-1,100 region is holding well as of now. The long lower wick on the Friday’s candle indicates that the stock is getting fresh buyers in the ₹1,110-1,100 support region. As long as RIL trades above ₹1,100, the short-term outlook will remain positive. A near-term resistance is at ₹1,158, which is likely to be tested. A strong break above this hurdle can take the stock higher to ₹1,185 or even ₹1,200 over the short term. The level of ₹1,200 is a crucial short-term trend resistance. A strong break and a decisive weekly close above it is needed to indicate that the broader uptrend has resumed. The outlook for the stock will turn negative only if it breaks decisively below ₹1,100. Such a break will increase the likelihood of the stock falling to ₹1,050 — the 200-day moving average support level.

Tata Steel (₹507.9)

Tata Steel extended its down move for the third consecutive week and tested ₹500, as expected, last week. The stock was down 4.2 per cent and tumbled over 11 per cent in the last three weeks. A crucial support is in the ₹500-490 region, which is holding as of now. If Tata Steel manages to sustain above this support zone, a relief rally to ₹540 or ₹550 is likely and a range-bound move between ₹490 and ₹555 is possible for some time. But the bias on the chart continues to remain bearish. A strong break below ₹490 will increase the likelihood of the downtrend extending towards ₹460 in the coming weeks. The level of ₹460 is a crucial long-term support, which may have the potential to halt the current downtrend. As such, the price action around this support region will need a close watch. Traders can hold the short positions taken at ₹540 and ₹545 with a revised stop-loss at ₹527. Move the stop-loss lower to ₹495 as soon as the stock moves down to ₹485. Book profits at ₹465.

Index Outlook

The ensuing week will be a crucial for markets as the outcome of the five State elections will determine the short-term movement in the market. On the macroeconomic front, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation data and wholesale price index (WPI) data are to be announced this week. Read more

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