Sensex closes 136 points higher at 40,301

Sensex, Nifty close firmer

The benchmark indices, the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty, recovered to close firm on Monday, after falling sharply from their its intra-day highs earlier in the session on Monday.

The Sensex finished 136 points or 0.34 per cent firmer at 40,301, while the Nifty edged up 54 points or 0.46 per cent at 11,945.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Infosys, Vedanta, ONGC, HDFC and ICICI Bank, while the laggards were Maruti, Hero MotoCorp, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors and YES Bank.

Among the sectoral indices, the metal sector index gained 3.20 per cent, followed by telecom (2.11 per cent), basic materials (1.42 per cent),  and IT (1.02 per cent).

The auto sector shares dropped 1.29 per cent, while the consumer durables shares lost 0.80 per cent in the session.

Oil slips as concerns over economic data offset trade deal optimism

Oil prices eased on Monday as traders took profit ahead of fresh European and US economic data, despite hopes for some resolution to the US-China trade row that has hurt global economic growth and crimped energy demand.

Prices jumped about $2 a barrel on Friday after the world's top two economies said they had made progress on trade talks while US officials said the deal could be signed this month.

Brent crude futures for January fell 16 cents to $61.53 a barrel by 0727 GMT, while December US crude futures was at $56.04 a barrel, down 16 cents. Click here to read in full the crude oil market report .

European shares near 2-year high

The broader pan-European STOXX 600 index edged 0.1 per cent higher. File Photo

European shares touched their highest level in nearly two years on Monday on hopes that a US-China trade deal could be in the offing, while a strong earnings report by Ryanair lifted Irish stocks to a one-year high.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.5 per cent to its highest since January 2018.

The benchmark index is inching close to a record high hit in April 2015, after ending Friday with its fourth straight weekly gain as upbeat US jobs numbers and a bounce in Chinese manufacturing tempered concerns over slowing economic growth. Click here to read in full the European markets report .

Asian shares hit 14-week highs on hopes of a trade deal

Asian shares surged on Monday, with a broad regional gauge hitting more than 14-week highs, as growing optimism over US-China trade talks and upbeat US job data boosted global investors' appetite for riskier assets.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 1.08 per cent, touching its highest level since July 24, and was on track for its biggest one-day gain since October 11.

Equity markets in Europe were set to follow Asia higher, with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.53 per cent, the German DAX futures 0.49 per cent higher and FTSE futures rising 0.41 per cent in early trading.

In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.36 per cent, and Seoul's Kospi added 1.43 per cent. In mainland China, blue chips were up 0.72 per cent, and Australian shares were 0.27 per cent higher. Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday. Click here to read in full the Asian markets report .

Sensex, Nifty reverse decline

The benchmark indices, which came off their early highs in mid-session, stood firmer ahead of the close on Monday.

The Sensex was trading at 40,356, up 191 points or 0.48 per cent firmer, while the Nifty was at 11,950, up 60 points or 0.51 per cent firmer.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Infosys, which  jumped 3.21 per cent, followed by Vedanta, ONGC, Tata Steel and HDFC. The laggards were Maruti, Hero MotoCorp, Hindustan Unilever, IndusInd Bank and Power Grid.

The metals index held firm, keeping gains of 3.20 per cen in the session, followed by telecom, (which rose 2.10 per cent), basic materials (1.74 per cent), and IT (1.26 per cent).

The laggards were led by auto (down 0.90 per cent) and consumer discretionary goods (0.62 per cent).

‘Regional pacts in the past proved to be adverse for India’

With the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership deliberations entering into a crucial phase triggering a nationwide uproar over possible adverse effects, a research firm has pointed out that past experience with such regional partnerships had proven to be adverse for India.

Trade deficit had widened considerably post such treaties. “India’s past experience with FTAs warrants caution. The country’s trade deficit with ASEAN has tripled since FTA with some of them,” an analysis by Emkay Global Financial Services has said. Click here to read more on the past experience with regional pacts .

Sensex, Nifty firm but off highs

The Sensex and Nifty came off their morning highs to trade lower in the afternoon session. The Sensex was at 40,251, up 88 points or 0.22 per cent, while the Nifty traded at 11,923, a gain of 32 points or 0.28 per cent.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel, Vedanta, Infosys, ONGC and ICICI Bank, while the laggards were Maruti, Hero MotoCorp, Axis Bank, Tata Motors and M&M.

Among the sectoral indices, metals was the top gainer (up 3.54 per cent), followed by basic materials (2.11 per cent), telecom (1.84 per cent), and IT (1.13 per cent).

The laggards were led by auto (down 1.27 per cent), consumer discretionary goods (0.77 per cent) and consumer durables (0.69 per cent).

Nifty call: Tread with caution while the index is volatile

The broader benchmark Nifty opened slightly higher and inched up during the initial hours of trade. But the bulls seem to have lost steam towards the critical level of 12,000, and the index started sliding subsequently. The Sensex, too, is following a similar price pattern. There is a good chance that both Indian benchmarks might witness profit-booking, taking them lower. On the other hand, the Asian markets are giving out mixed signals, as the Nikkei closed marginally in the red, whereas the Hang Seng is up by a percentage point.

Notably, the advances-declines ratio of the Nifty 50 index has a bullish bias, at 30-20. The volatility index, India VIX, indicates higher volatility today, as it is up by a little over 3 per cent at 16.25. The sectoral indices, too, are giving out mixed signals -- the Nifty metal is up by 3 per cent and the Nifty media, the top loser, is down by 3 per cent. Click here to read in full the Nifty call report .

Sensex trims morning gains

The Sensex has shed most of its morning gains to trade at 40,249, a gain of 84 points or 0.21 per cent.

The Nifty was at 11,940, a gain of 49 points or 0.42 per cent.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel, Infosys, Vedanta, Bajaj Finance and ONGC, while the laggards were Hero MotoCorp, Maruti, Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank and Hindustan Unilever.

Steel sector shares, that had gained nearly 5 per cent earlier in the day, dropped lower to 4 per cent. Mining and mineral products held gains of 3.20 per cent, down from over 4 per cent earlier. Automobile sector shares dropped 1.72 per cent and FMCG was down 0.99 per cent.

Infosys: No prima facie evidence to support allegations made by whistleblower group

Infosys has said there is no prima facie evidence to corroborate any of the allegations made in the whistleblower group's complaint.

In a statement to the NSE, Infosys said the Audit Committee retained the services of the law firm Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas & Co. to investigate the matter. Moreover, even before the appointment of the independent investigator, the Audit Committee began consultations with independent internal auditors Ernst & Young. The independent internal auditors were given the mandate to review certain processes on the basis of the allegation in the Anonymous Complaints. Click here to read in full the Infosys report on whistleblower allegations .

Stellar Q2 by cement companies despite cracks

Cement manufacturers saw healthy growth in volumes for the last eight quarters (till June 2019), led by a surge in construction-led demand. This rally continued despite an expected slowdown during the election months (March-May 2019). Since the demand outlook was driven by the Centre’s push for infrastructure and construction spend, cement prices also saw healthy traction during these quarters. Click here to read in full the report on stellar Q2 for cement companies .

Sensex, Nifty make further gains

The benchmark indices, the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty, extended their gains in mid-morning trade on Monday. The Sensex gained 274 points or 0.68 per cent to trade at 40,439, while the Nifty rose 83 points or 0.70 per cent to quote at 11,974.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel, Vedanta, Infosys, ICICI Bank and Bajaj Finance, while the laggards were led by Hero MotoCorp, Maruti, Power Grid, Bajaj Auto and Hindustan Unilever.

The steel sector shares gained 5 per cent during the session, while mining sector stocks rose 4.77 per cent.

The automobile sector stocks slipped 0.70 per cent and FMCG eased 0.54 per cen

Euro supported ahead of Lagarde speech, rand bounces

Major currencies started the week quietly with a holiday in Tokyo making for thin trading conditions and investors waiting to hear the first official speech from the new head of the European Central Bank later in the session.

The dollar had tried to rally on Friday after US payrolls beat expectations, but was undone by a soft manufacturing survey which left it looking heavy.

The euro started the week firm at $1.1168 as bulls looked to test the October peak of $1.1179 and the 200-day moving average at $1.1195. Click here to read in full the global forex markets report .

Crude oil prices falls; eyes on data amid trade deal hopes

Oil prices eased on Monday as traders remained cautious ahead of fresh European and US economic data, despite hopes for some resolution to the US-China trade row that has hurt global economic growth and crimped energy demand.

Prices jumped more than 3 per cent on Friday after the world's two largest economies said they had made progress on trade talks while US officials said the deal could be signed this month.

Brent crude futures for January fell 26 cents to $55.94 a barrel by 0125 GMT while December US crude futures was at $61.42 a barrel, down 27 cents. Click here to read in full the oil markets report .

Rupee gains 16 paise against US dollar in early trade

With interest rates going down globally and rupee fairly stable, external commercial borrowings are cheaper than domestic debt

The rupee appreciated by 16 paise to 70.65 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday as easing crude prices and sustained foreign fund inflows strengthened investor sentiments. Market participants said a higher opening in the domestic equity market, and hopes for a US-China trade deal also supported the local currency.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened strong at 70.55, registering a rise of 26 paise over its previous close of 70.81. It, however, pared some gains and was trading at 70.65 against the dollar in morning trade. Click here to read in full the rupee report .

Sensex, Nifty extend gains

The benchmark indices extended last week's firm run into the new week.

In morning trade on Monday, the Sensex spurted up 186 points or 0.46 per cent to trade at 40,351. The Nifty gained 69 points or 0.58 per cent to quote at 11,959.

According to an agency report. The Sensex rallied over 269 points to hit its intra-day peak of 40,434.83 in early trade on Monday led by gains in ICICI Bank, RIL, ITC, TCS and HDFC Bank, amid positive global cues and unabated foreign fund inflow.

Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty advanced 75.85 points to 11,966.45, inching closed to the 12,000 mark.

Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Vedanta, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, SBI, HCL Tech, Sun Pharma and Bharti Airtel, rising up to 3.20 per cent.

On the other hand, Yes Bank, Infosys, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto and HUL fell up to 4.80 per cent.

In the previous session, the 30-share Sensex settled 35.98 points, or 0.09 per cent, higher at 40,165.03. The Nifty advanced 13.15 points, or 0.11 per cent, to close at 11,890.60.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased Rs 533.37 crore in the capital market, on Friday, while domestic institutional investors sold shares worth Rs 136.50 crore, data available with the stock exchanges showed.

According to experts, better liquidity from FIIs and mutual funds will maintain a positive sentiment in the market given a de-escalation in geopolitical risks and the focus on upcoming reforms to revive growth.

Globally, bourses in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul were trading higher on optimism over the US-China trade deal after China’s Commerce Ministry on Saturday announced that top Chinese and US trade negotiators had “reached a consensus on principles“.

Indices in Tokyo, however, were in the red.

Shares on Wall Street, too, ended higher after data showing the US economy continued to add jobs at a steady clip despite turbulence from the trade war with China.

On the currency front, the rupee appreciated 16 paise against the US dollar to trade at 70.65 in early session.

Brent futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.53 per cent to USD 61.36 per barrel (with inputs from PTI).

Asian shares extend gains on trade deal hopes, US job boost

Asian shares rose to 14-week highs on Monday as growing optimism over US-China trade talks and upbeat US job data boosted global investors' appetite for riskier assets.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.2 per cent in early trade, having earlier touched its highest level since July 29. Australian shares were up 0.2 per cent and Seoul's Kospi added 0.9 per cent. Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday. Click here to read in full the report on Asian markets .

Rupee facing a key resistance

Though the rupee remained within the 70.75 and 71 range on Friday, there was a sharp recovery, after hitting support at 71. Following an intraday low of 70.98, the domestic currency gained throughout the day and closed the session at 70.81.

Appreciation from current levels will face a resistance at 70.75, which has been restricting the rupee over the past four weeks. A break above that level, will take it to 70.5 intra-day. However, if the Indian currency faces downward pressure due to the back of resistance, it might retract to 71. Noticeably, 70.89 is a reasonable support. Click here to read in full the rupee call report .

How to benefit from Titan Company stock’s narrow movement

The long-term outlook for the stock of Titan Company (₹1,301.4) will remain positive, as long as it stays above ₹1,037. If the stock fails to sustain above that level, then the medium-term outlook will turn bearish. Titan has an immediate support at ₹1,230 and the next one at ₹1,153. If the current bullish trend persists and the stock conclusively closes above ₹1,335, it has the potential to record new peak. Click here to read in full the report on the stock movement of Titan Company .

Excess monsoon and post-monsoon rain likely to hit Kharif output

The extended monsoon has left vast swathes waterlogged

The excess monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall across parts of Central and South India have spoiled the kharif party for many a farmer in these regions this year. However, officials at the Agriculture Ministry said that the overall impact on kharif food grain output would be limited because of higher expected yields in crops such as paddy.

Crops such as soyabean, groundnut, pulses and cotton, among others, have been hit by excess rains both during the growth stage and in the harvest period, thereby trimming crop sizes in some cases and also impacting the quality of the produce. Besides, horticulture crops such as onions and tomatoes and perennial crops such as coffee and pepper have also been impacted. Click here to read in full the report on the impact of excess monsoon on Kharif output .

Big Story: Auto sector: After the slowdown, what lies ahead?

The fortunes of the auto sector turned upside down last year. Back until the first half of last fiscal (April-September 2018), the sector was cruising, having convincingly recovered from the bumps due to the note ban and GST transition. New vehicle sales grew by 14.2 per cent overall in 2017-18 (over 2016-17), more than double the 6.8 per cent growth in 2016-17 (over 2015-16). The good run continued into April-September 2018, with overall auto sales growing by 10.07 per cent in this period. Economic recovery, an uptick in rural demand and improved urban consumption have aided the sector’s growth. Click here to read in full the Big Story on the auto sector .

Opening bell

The benchmark indices, the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty, opened Monday's session firm.

The Sensex was up 148 points or 0.37 per cent at 40,313, while the Nifty gained 38 points or 0.32 per cent to trade at 11,928.

Index Outlook: Nifty 50, Sensex will stay in the long-term range

A man uses his mobile phone to take pictures next to a cake to celebrate the Sensex index rising to over 40,000, in Mumbai, India, May 23, 2019. REUTERS/ Francis Mascarenhas

The Sensex recording a fresh life-time high of 40,392 last week has infused cheer and optimism among market participants. There are many pointing towards green shoots in automobile sales, good rains, festival sales and the recent corporate tax rate cut as reasons for the bullish sentiment in the Indian market.

It would, however, be better for investors to remain circumspect at current levels. The Sensex and the Nifty 50 are in a sideways move since September 2018, largely due to the continued demand for large-caps from institutional investors.

While the indices can move a little higher from these levels, the risk of their declining to the lower end of the long-term range, in the coming quarters, remains open. Click here to read in full the Index Outlook on the long-term range for the Nifty 50 and Sensex .

Weekly Trading Guide for week beginning November 4, 2019

SBI gains on substantial buying interest (₹313.5)

The stock of SBI climbed throughout the past week, crossing an important level of ₹300; it even registered a 13-week high of ₹317.8 on Thursday. Noticeably, it has moved past ₹309, the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. After closing at ₹313.5, the stock is currently trading at a resistance in the band between ₹309 and ₹315. But the daily relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence indicator continue to indicate a bullish bias and the medium-term outlook of the stock is positive. So, with the current momentum, the stock will most likely break out of ₹315 and move up towards ₹335. Note that before ₹335, the stock could face a minor resistance at ₹324, the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. A daily close above ₹315 will confirm a higher peak, which could reinforce the existing bullish momentum. On the other hand, if the stock undergoes a correction on profit-booking, it has supports at ₹300 and ₹292. The stock has returned an impressive 15.3 per cent for October.

ITC is testing a key resistance level (₹ 261.3)

The stock of ITC gained during the past week after facing a sell-off in the week before. The stock currently faces strong resistance at ₹263 – also substantiated by the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downtrend. Though the daily chart shows that attempts to break ₹263 for the past three trading sessions have failed, the 21-day moving average has crossed over the 50-day moving average, indicating a shift in the medium-term trend. Also, bullishness is exhibited by the daily relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence indicator. So, on the back of it, if the stock closes above ₹263 on daily basis, it will confirm a higher peak and will attract fresh buying interest, lifting the stock price further. On the upside, it will face resistances at ₹269 and ₹274. On the contrary, if the stock faces selling pressure, it will find immediate support at ₹258. But a break below that level could drag the stock to ₹250 over the medium term. Despite high volatility, the stock closed flat in October.

Infosys attempting to recover after a crash (₹687.9)

The Infosys stock was impacted by negative news and the price tumbled by a record level and even registered an 11-month low of ₹615.1. The 21-DMA has crossed below the 50-DMA; the daily relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence indicator are pointing downwards making the medium-term outlook weak. However, the stock price recovered over the past week and managed to close at ₹687.9, above the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of ₹638. But only a break above ₹700 can lead to a sustainable recovery. Over the medium term, it is highly probable that the stock will consolidate within a broad range of between ₹620 and ₹700. In case the sentiment shifts in favour of the stock resulting in the breakout of ₹700, it will face hindrances at ₹745 and ₹760. Alternatively, if the price breaches the support at ₹620, it will test the 52-week low at ₹599.8. Below that level, the sell-off could accelerate, potentially pulling down the price to ₹575. The stock plunged 14.9 per cent in October.

RIL sailing on good bullish momentum (₹1,456.9)

Reliance Industries (RIL) continued its uptrend, hitting record high in the past week. The stock registered a new all-time high of ₹1,489.65 on Thursday and closed with significant gains for the third consecutive month. Though the bulls appear to be in control, there are some concerns which can be observed in the price action. The bearish divergence is visible in the weekly relative strength index (RSI), whereas the daily RSI is hovering in the over-bought territory after seven months. The moving average convergence divergence indicator also shows a bearish divergence in the weekly time-frame. These factors call for caution as the stock might witness a price correction. So, if the stock declines, ₹1,400 will act as a support. A break below that level could drag the stock to ₹1,360. But if the stock continues with the current bullish trend, it is highly likely that it will appreciate to ₹1,500. The stock gave a return of 10 per cent October.

Tata Steel puts forth a good recovery (₹399.8)

A recovery in the stock price of Tata Steel accelerated last week as it cracked above a key resistance at ₹380 and closed at ₹399.8, testing the psychological level of ₹400. But the price has already confirmed a higher peak and the 21-day moving average is attempting to cross over the 50-day moving average – a bullish signal. The stock has also moved past the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the previous swing at ₹395, paving the way for further appreciation. The daily relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence indicator are signalling a substantial bullish momentum. Importantly, the price action has developed a double bottom chart pattern on the daily chart, which already stands confirmed. The stock will face a resistance at ₹418, beyond which it has the potential to move towards ₹440. However, if the price level of ₹400 manages to hinder the gains, it could decline to the supports at ₹380 and ₹360. The stock gained 5.5 per cent in October.

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