MCX-Nickel: Go long above ₹1,125

The September futures contract of nickel on Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), which has been in an uptrend since June, registered a high of ₹1,158.4 in the first week of September. But the contract reversed the trend and declined to register a low of ₹1,081 last Friday, before recovering to the current level of ₹1,115.

Since the contract remains above the key support of ₹1,072, the overall trend will be inclined to bullish.

Following the price recovery in the past few trading sessions, the daily relative strength index, which was moving downwards, is now showing a fresh uptick and has crossed over the midpoint level of 50. The moving average convergence divergence indicator on the daily chart, which is tracing a downward trajectory, is now showing signs of a recovery.

The contract, currently hovers at ₹1,115 and faces roadblock ahead at ₹1,125. If price strengthens above that level, it will most likely retest its prior high of ₹1,158.4 and a break out of that level can take the contract to ₹1,200. But if the contract weakens, it has a support in the band between ₹1,085 and ₹1,072. A breach of ₹1,072 can turn the outlook negative, potentially dragging the contract to ₹1,040.

On the global front, the three-month rolling forward contract of nickel on London Metal Exchange, that saw its price go below the critical support of $15,000, has now recovered above that level. Thus, the contract looks bullish as it continues to retain the higher high – higher low price pattern and it is likely to rally from current levels. A rally can positively impact the contract on MCX.

Trading Strategy

The price action of the contract on MCX is hinting at a recovery where the contract is likely to advance from here. However, it faces a hurdle at ₹1,125. Hence, traders can stay on the fence now and go long with stop-loss at ₹1,080 if the contract price breaks out of ₹1,125.