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Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) has forecast India’s non-oil exports to amount to $68.3 billion for the third quarter of FY21, witnessing a marginal 0.3 per cent positive year-on-year growth after three consecutive quarters of contraction.
On the other hand, total merchandise exports are forecast to continue to witness a moderation to $77.6 billion in the third quarter of FY21 compared to $79 billion in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, said India Exim Bank in a statement.
This contraction comes in the backdrop of one of the steepest and continued contractions in India’s oil exportswitnessed since March 2020, it added.
The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which tracks and forecasts the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.
ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and has been developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
India Exim Bank will release the next growth forecast for exports for the quarter January-March 2021 during the first week of March 2021.
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