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The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) has risen to yet another high of 114 for the week ending November 21 from 110.3 in the prior week, suggesting the business resumption index is 14 percentage points (pp) above pre-pandemic levels (i.e., 100).
Google workplace mobility rose sharply by 18.1 pp, while retail and recreation fell by 3.3 pp and the Apple driving index rose by 3.6 pp. The labour participation rate remained tepid at 39.8 per cent, while power demand rose by 0.2 per cent w-o-w, as payback from the 5.5 per cent rose in the prior week.
“A mix of supply-side headwinds and demand-side tailwinds continue to obscure the growth outlook. On the demand side, there is evidence of strong festival demand among consumers, an uptick in credit growth and robust core imports in October. Low infection rates and reopenings are also boosting mobility and services activity,” Nomura said.
“However, October auto sales have been lacklustre, reflecting not only semiconductor shortages but also the impact of weak rural demand on two-wheeler sales. The energy crunch seems to be easing, with a rise in coal stocks at power plants. Overall, we maintain our GDP growth outlook of 9.2 per cent for FY22, with a downside risk of ~1 pp due to supply issues,” Nomura added.
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