The Nomura India Business Resumption Index rose to an all-time high of 108.8 for the week ending October 17 from 105 in the prior week (pre-pandemic level=100), with a broad-based rise across most sub-components.

Mobility indices rose sharply ahead of the festive season. The Apple driving index jumped 14.1 percentage points (pp) over the week, while Google workplace and retail & recreation indices rose by 2.7 pp and 3.1 pp, respectively.

The labour participation rate rose to 41.6 per cent from 40.4 per cent, while power demand fell 1.7 per cent w-o-w (sa) after rising 0.3 per cent in the prior week.

Pace of vaccination falls

The pace of vaccination has fallen in October, but India will cross the milestone of administering one billion vaccine doses this week. About 20.5 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated and 50.4 per cent have received at least one dose, which is enabling reopening and has boosted mobility. With domestic flights allowed to operate at full capacity from today, the transportation sector should get a further boost.

“Even as demand is recovering, supply bottlenecks have emerged as a bigger constraint. Coal shortages are resulting in supply disruptions to non-power customers, while chip shortages have hurt passenger vehicle sales during the festive season. As supply struggles to tango with demand, we see higher inflation as a bigger risk,” Nomura said

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