Money & Banking

Raghuram Rajan throws down fiscal gauntlet for New Delhi

Una Galani Reuters Breakingviews | Updated on January 10, 2018 Published on September 08, 2017

India's rock star central banker has found his voice. Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has broken his roughly one-year long silence on the country to impart some timely advice. The ex-International Monetary Fund economist told Reuters Breakingviews that New Delhi should sell stakes in state firms to fund a bank bailout. He's right: borrowing more would give up the credibility India has won with international markets with its healthy finances. It also throws down the fiscal gauntlet for New Delhi.

Fiscal consolidation

New Delhi needs billions of dollars to fund a bank bailout. In his new book, I do what I do, Rajan dismisses the idea of setting up a bad bank and advocates a direct recapitalisation. Rajan went further in an interview, saying the strong performance of India's stock market provided a good opportunity to sell assets to fund such a move. His view runs counter to the current consensus that India can afford to relax fiscal consolidation for such an important reform.

India is already straining to hit the fiscal deficit goal of 3.2 per cent in the current financial year for various reasons, including a halving of a payout from the RBI following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's unorthodox currency experiment. Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian earlier this year said a bailout could cost as much as 4 per cent of GDP. If that was borrowed and added to the existing position, India could end up with a deficit to rival its peak following the global financial crisis. That ultimately fed into the currency turmoil Rajan had to manage in 2013 when he took over the RBI - his success then earning him widespread acclaim.

Strong leadership

One reason India has enjoyed record inward investment under Modi is because of strong leadership as well as healthy finances, with twin fiscal and current-account deficits under control and a stable currency. India, though, has been helped by low oil prices and has less power to control the current account than to maintain fiscal credibility. Rajan is right to dampen the unbridled confidence and warn New Delhi to stick to the path of prudence.

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)



Rajanspeak

India could sell stakes in state-owned companies to fund a bank recapitalisation without straying from the path of fiscal consolidation

Stronger, better-managed banks should be given the capital they need to absorb losses as a matter of high priority

Keep to fiscal consolidation path; find other places where one can either cut spending or raise resources







Published on September 08, 2017
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