Comments
India's rock star central banker has found his voice. Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has broken his roughly one-year long silence on the country to impart some timely advice. The ex-International Monetary Fund economist told Reuters Breakingviews that New Delhi should sell stakes in state firms to fund a bank bailout. He's right: borrowing more would give up the credibility India has won with international markets with its healthy finances. It also throws down the fiscal gauntlet for New Delhi.
Fiscal consolidation
New Delhi needs billions of dollars to fund a bank bailout. In his new book, I do what I do , Rajan dismisses the idea of setting up a bad bank and advocates a direct recapitalisation. Rajan went further in an interview, saying the strong performance of India's stock market provided a good opportunity to sell assets to fund such a move. His view runs counter to the current consensus that India can afford to relax fiscal consolidation for such an important reform.
India is already straining to hit the fiscal deficit goal of 3.2 per cent in the current financial year for various reasons, including a halving of a payout from the RBI following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's unorthodox currency experiment. Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian earlier this year said a bailout could cost as much as 4 per cent of GDP. If that was borrowed and added to the existing position, India could end up with a deficit to rival its peak following the global financial crisis. That ultimately fed into the currency turmoil Rajan had to manage in 2013 when he took over the RBI - his success then earning him widespread acclaim.
Strong leadership
One reason India has enjoyed record inward investment under Modi is because of strong leadership as well as healthy finances, with twin fiscal and current-account deficits under control and a stable currency. India, though, has been helped by low oil prices and has less power to control the current account than to maintain fiscal credibility. Rajan is right to dampen the unbridled confidence and warn New Delhi to stick to the path of prudence.
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)
Comments
COMMENT NOW
Comments
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.