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The Reserve Bank of India may cut the benchmark short-term lending rate by about 0.25 per cent in its annual monetary policy next month in the backdrop of declining inflation and the urgency to promote growth.
“Right now, the conditions should enable RBI to cut repo rate. We expect a cut of 25 basis points (or 0.25 per cent) in its policy in May and may be by another 25 bps in the next review,” HDFC Bank Chief Economist Abheek Barua said.
RBI Governor D. Subbarao will announce the Monetary Policy Statement for 2013-14 on May 3.
YES Bank Chief Economist Shubhada Rao said that RBI may cut repo rate or the short-term lending rate by about 0.25 per cent in May as inflation has come down and there is a need to fuel economic growth.
“Taking cues from inflation, we believe that RBI could take this time...to cut rate, particularly, the way we have seen inflation in the past coming down. Given the strong deceleration in growth, we think RBI may cut repo rate by 0.25 per cent in May as well as may provide some liquidity easing,” Rao said.
WPI inflation
Wholesale Price Index-based inflation softened to 5.96 per cent in March after an annual rise of 6.84 per cent in February, the lowest rate since November 2011.
“If you look at the incremental data WPI, IIP in the last two months, that data is in favour of the 25 basis points rate cut. We are expecting a cut in repo rate in May,” Anubhuti Sahay, Economist, Standard Chartered Bank, said.
Industry has been batting for a rate cut to tide over the problems concerning poor demand, low industrial output and subdued economic growth.
IIP growth
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the key gauge to measure industrial activity, slumped to 0.6 per cent in February from 4.3 per cent a year-ago because of poor performance in manufacturing coupled with contraction in power generation and mining output.
India’s economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a decade’s low of 5 per cent in 2012-13, pulled down by the poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors.
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