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Pacific cyclone may limit monsoon’s gains

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on July 01, 2014 Published on July 01, 2014

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A low pressure area showing up over North Bay of Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh has opened up the possibility of interaction with a passing western disturbance parked over Jammu and Kashmir.

This type of interaction is what helps monsoon extend coverage of area under its footprint in North India.

The western disturbance is also obliging the monsoon with a “bow” over plains of North-West India. The disturbance has rolled down an offspring cyclonic circulation from the Himalayan hills into the plains, which will interact with the monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal.

Breaks jinx

The interaction will take place along the corridor provided by a trough that extends from Punjab to East-central Bay of Bengal across Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and the centre of the ‘low.’

India Met Department said on Tuesday that the monsoon has managed to break out of its two-week-long jinx over central parts and advanced further into parts of north-west.

The Met said conditions are favourable for its further advance to more parts of Madhya Pradesh, remaining Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab and parts of north Rajasthan during next two days.

However, the extended outlook for the monsoon as global models see it is not rosy.

The immediate threat is in the form of a typhoon (cyclone) developing to the north-east of Philippines.

Rains for coast

This will develop as a low-pressure area by the weekend and grow to become a strong typhoon by early next week.

The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts sees the typhoon moving in a north-northeast direction into East China Sea and making a landfall over South East China coast by July 10.

The impact for India will be in the form of heavy rains growing heavy over the West Coast and Peninsular India.

The US Climate Prediction Centre sees a below-average monsoon to persist in India into the week starting July 2.

Published on July 01, 2014
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