A month into lockdown, cases rising linearly, not exponentially: Centre

A month into the lockdown, the Centre has stated that new cases of novel coronavirus (Covid-19) cases are rising in a linear fashion, and not exponentially, unlike in Western countries such as the US and the UK.

On March 24, India had recorded 519 cases, which increased to 21,700 as on April 23, said CK Mishra, Secretary, Ministry of Environment, who also heads an empowered group on the availability of hospitals, isolation and quarantine facilities, disease surveillance, testing and critical care training. Of the 21,700 confirmed cases, up to 4,325 have recovered while 686 have died.

Also read: Covid-19 crisis: Karnataka gets ‘out-of-the-box’ ideas for revenue mobilisation

As on Thursday, there are 12 districts nationwide that have not had a fresh case in the last 28 days or more. Since April 21, eight new districts have been added to this list: Chitradurga (Karnataka), Bilaspur (Chhattisgarh), Imphal West (Manipur), Aizawl West (Mizoram), Bhadradari Kothagudem (Telangana), Pilibhit (UP), SBS Nagar (Punjab) and South Goa (Goa). Also, 78 districts from 23 States/UTs have not reported any fresh cases over the past 14 days.

Going ahead, Mishra said, the Centre and States are working towards cutting transmission, minimising spread, increasing the duration of doubling of cases, consistently ramping up testing and utilising the lockdown period to prepare for the future if the pandemic spreads further.

Meanwhile, India’s testing numbers for suspect samples through the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) method have recorded an increase, from 14,915 as on March 23 to over 5 lakh tests as on April 22, Mishra said.

On an average, of all the samples tested between March 24 and April 22 in India, up to 4.5 per cent have tested positive for Covid-19.

In the US, 5 lakh samples were tested as of March 26, and 80,000 (16 per cent) were positive, said Mishra. In Italy, the same numbers were tested by March 31 and 1 lakh (20 per cent) were positive. In the UK, 1.2 lakh tested positive (24 per cent) by April 20. In Turkey, as on April 16, 80,000 were positive (16 per cent), whereas in India this rate has stabilised at 4.5 per cent as it crosses the 5 lakh testing mark.

Global shortage

Balram Bhargava, Director, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said there is a shortage of reagents, RNA extraction kits and RT-PCR kits throughout the world. “Even as there is a short supply, the Centre has been working with States to make sure that these reagents are supplied to labs in a timely fashion, especially in hotspots,” Bhargava said.

Randeep Guleria, Director, AIIMS, New Delhi, pointed out that the stigma related to Covid is leading to people with flu-like symptoms presenting very late to hospital services, which may lead to higher mortality. “Of all the cases, 15 per cent need timely oxygen, so we are looking at creating more beds with oxygen. Patients must present to us early when they have symptoms so they can be treated early,” Guleria urged.

Mishra said the Indian health system has limitations which need to be corrected and the focus is now on districts to ramp up their hospital infrastructure. “But our primary goal is that people should not need to come to the hospital, and that is only possible if we follow social distancing and take care of the vulnerable (old, people with co-morbidities and children,” he said.

According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s official data as on April 23, currently India has 1,741 Covid care centres for mild cases, 1,297 for moderate cases and 736 Covid hospitals with 24,644 ICU beds, up to 12,371 ventilators and up to 1,66,960 isolation beds.

Also read: Covid-19: Centre considering allowing industry use ESI scheme funds for wage payments

COMMENT NOW