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Two weeks before Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kumar Dahal aka Prachanda’s scheduled visit to Delhi, India is occupying the mind-space in Kathmandu. While some are looking forward to Indian play, others accuse New Delhi of micro-managing Nepal politics.
Having assumed the hot seat early this month, Prachanda is faced with two major agendas: amending the Constitution to suit the demand of inclusiveness from Madhesis and other marginalised groups and; resolving the civil war crime controversy.
The Maoists, their coalition partner National Congress, and the Nepalese Army have a vested interest in resolving the war crime controversy as many of them are accused of killings and torture during the 11-year civil war that ended in November 2006.
War crimes“Resolving the war crime issue is important to complete the peace process,” says Roshan Khadka, Executive Editor of muldharnews.com, a Kathmandu based portal on politics and defence affairs.
Khadka, who is close to the ruling dispensation, wants the government to build a political consensus with the principal Opposition, former Prime Minister KP Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist).
But that is easier said than done.
According to Pradeep Gyawali, General Secretary of CPN (UML), the Supreme Court is hearing 225 cases, nearly 1,300 FIRs have been filed and 56,000 complaints registered with the Truth and Reconciliation Committee (TRC).
The CPN (UML) is not on the firing line and wants the issues to be resolved by the laws of the land to prevent international trial.
The ruling dispensation, however, wants a blanket amnesty and is keen that India plays the mediator between the US and the EU to relax the demand for trial. They are pinning hopes on the camaraderie between Indian and the Nepalese army.
Nihar Nayak, Research Fellow at the Delhi-based Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), rules this out. India, he says, stepped up the demand for war crime trials at the UNHRC last year to put pressure on the Oli-led coalition of Maoists and the CPN(UML) that enjoyed the support of China.
In the changed circumstances, India may not pursue the issue at the international forum, but it may also not be able convince the others, he says.
Constitutional amendmentKhadka says Prachanda is likely to move a Bill for constitutional amendment before his scheduled visit to Delhi on September 12.
It will propose to address two major Madhesi demands: re-demarcation of provincial boundaries and proportional representation in the Upper House of Parliament.
But the ruling coalition doesn’t have the requisite majority to clear the Bill. Against the requisite 400 votes (out of 601), Prachanda enjoys support of 363 members.
Devendra Yadav, Joint General Secretary of Sadbhawana Party (one of the major Madhesi forces supporting the ruling coalition), admits that the amendment looks difficult at this juncture. He blames it on failure to include Kamal Thapa’s RPP Nepal in the coalition.
Former Deputy Prime Minister in Oli cabinet, Thapa has 25 members and is traditionally close to the BJP-RSS by virtue of his Hindu-Royalist status. He also kept lines open to Delhi during the troubled times.
Yadav says Thapa was expected to join the government following the unification with a smaller faction of the RPP. But the proposal collapsed at the last minute, allegedly at Indian interference.
Without taking a direct reference to the incident, Yadav accuses India of “micro managing” Nepal politics. Another Madhesi leader says Thapa was excluded as his relationship with Delhi turned sour. They are now trying to split the CPN (UML).
Thapa, however, denied any strain in the relationship with India or the BJP. “There was no serious offer either from the Maoists or the Nepali Congress for joining the government,” he told BusinessLine .
On the amendment proposal, he said the Oli government proposed amendment for proportional representation and mooted the formation of a high-power committee to settle the demarcation issue.
He is not clear about the justification behind fresh amendments. Gyawali has a similar take on the issue.
“The amendment appears to be a distant dream at this juncture,” Nayak says.
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