Vanakkam! Dear Tamil Nadu, Better recall that old weather proverb: Red sky at night, sailor’s delight: Red sky in morning, sailor’s warning. Please keep a watch out, because there’s lots apparently about to happen as November enters its last week and December rings in.

So, a red sky in the West at night can mean a couple things, depending on the shade of red. A more pinkish hue can portend clear, fair weather, but a deep red sky could mean that moisture is collecting in the air, and a storm system is forming.

In the eastern sky, a red sky at night can mean fair weather. And there's a little science behind it: a red night sky in the East may mean that the light of the setting sun is passing through the low atmosphere and reflecting off clouds. It’s possible that the rain has already passed!

Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are already under the influence of active easterly wave conditions with scattered to fairly widespread rainfall punctuated by isolated heavy falls being forecast for today and tomorrow (Tuesday and Wednesday).

Click here to read this weather forecast in Tamil

In addition, an extended outlook by the India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, has already said a low-pressure area may form over the South Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean anytime during the next couple of days. There is, however, a low probability of it intensifying into a depression over the South Bay of Bengal with gradual movement West-North-West — around Sri Lanka, Kanyakumari and into Lakshadweep, a track made familiar recently by supercyclone Kyarr.

But its latest update says a low-pressure area may form over the South-East Arabian Sea and adjoining Equatorial Indian ocean on November 30 (Saturday). It is likely to become more marked (intensified) and move West-North-West (off Sri Lanka and Kanyakumari into Lakshadweep).

It would bring fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry; scattered to fairly widespread over Kerala and Rayalaseema; and isolated to scattered over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep.

The build-up to this, combined with the easterly wave, should bring heavy rainfall today (Tuesday) over Coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning are likely at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala. Squally wind with speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr (normally associated with a depression) may prevail over the Comorin area.

As for tomorrow (Wednesday), forecasts favour heavy rainfall at isolated places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning may roam Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala.

The outlook for Thursday and Friday indicates heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Private forecaster Skymet Weather has said that Chennai could expect a walloping during this weekend (Saturday and Sunday) as the North-East monsoon revs up over Tamil Nadu. A spike in rainfall may materialise over the State between tomorrow (Wednesday) and Sunday. Barring the northern parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh, all the other four meteorological subdivisions of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, South interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema will receive good rains. The heavier rains may be mostly confined to Tamil Nadu.

An outlook by NCEP-GEFS (US National Centres for Environmental Prediction-Global Ensemble Forecast System) suggests that the easterly wave activity, topped up by a depression/cyclone, may continue into early December with Sri Lanka and South Tamil Nadu being likely targets. This may be read along with an extended outlook by the India Meteorological Department that has already indicated the possibility of above-normal rainfall for the South Peninsula and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands between November 28 and December 4 (almost a week starting Thursday).

 

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Chennai: 20% chance of rain

Partly cloudy conditions during the day today may turn to mostly cloudy skies into the evening with a few showers after midnight. The winds will remain north-easterly blowing at 15-30 km/hr with 20 per cent chance of rain during the day and an improved 30 per cent into the night. The maximum temperature expected during the day is 29 degrees Celsius with a night-time low at 26 degrees Celsius.

A better chance of rain (40 per cent) is indicated for tomorrow (Wednesday) as scattered thunderstorms arrive in the afternoon with north-easterly winds holding steady at 15-30 km/hr.

Chennai International Airport (MAA/VOMM): Foggy conditions at 9 am with winds northerly to north-easterly and temperature at 28 degrees Celsius. Current disruptions suggest an average delay of five minutes in arrivals and 10 minutes in departures (both on a reducing trend). An IndiGo flight from Delhi had landed at 8.47 am (scheduled 9.10 am) while an Alliance Air from flight Coimbatore was scheduled to land at 9.20 am and SpiceJet from Mumbai at 9.22 am (scheduled 9.25 am). As for departures, there was an average delay of 10 minutes (reducing tendency). An Etihad Airways flight to Abu Dhabi was scheduled for take off at 9.16 am (scheduled 9.15 am) and a domestic IndiGo flight to Bengaluru at 9.20 am.

Puducherry: 50% chance of rain

A partly cloudy morning may turn increasingly cloudy with periods of showers in the afternoon. Maximum temperature expected to be near 30 degrees Celsius. Winds north-easterly at 15-30 km/h with a chance of rain at 50 per cent. Rain chances at night pegged at 80 per cent. Lowest temperature near 25 degrees Celsius. Winds will be north-easterly at 15-25 km/h.

Salem: 10% chance of rain

Guaranteed dry day and night with a temperature high of 31 degrees Celsius and low of 22 degrees Celsius. Partly cloudy day with east-north-easterly winds at 10-15 km/hr. Some clouds into the night with winds light and variable.

Coimbatore: 10% chance of rain

One of the driest daily forecasts in recent times with just 10 per cent chance of rain, sun and clouds mixed. Only consolation is the mercury may not seek a high beyond 29 degrees Celsius. Winds easterly to north-easterly at 15-25 km/h. Slightly raised 20 per cent chance of rain under partly cloudy conditions into the night with lowest temperature of 21 degrees Celsius. Winds light and variable.

Tiruchirappalli: 20% chance of rain

Mix of sun and clouds with maximum day temperature of 31 degrees Celsius. Winds north-easterly at 15-30 km/hr. A few clouds into the night lowest temperature of 24 degrees Celsius with winds north-easterly at 10-15 km/hr.

Madurai: 20% chance of rain

Partly cloudy skies, winds north-easterly at 15-25 km/hr with maximum temperature of 31 degrees Celsius. Generally clear night with a few passing clouds. Winds north-north-easterly at 10-15 km/hr with lowest temperature of 24 degrees Celsius.

Thoothukudi: 40% chance of rain

Like yesterday (Monday), better chance of a wet day with an estimated 40 per cent chance of rain as friendly easterly waves favour the South of Tamil Nadu. The outlook is for mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms and a temperature high of 31 degrees Celsius. Winds north-easterly at 15-30 km/h. Night may turn cloudy with occasional showers and lowest temperature of 25 degrees Celsius. Winds to be north-north-easterly at 15-25 km/h.

Chennai’s bloggers and Twitterati tweeted away their hopes and wishes for a purported second coming of the North-East monsoon:

 

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