Vanakkam!

In a dramatic development this Wednesday morning, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a twin-cyclone watch nearshore off the West Coast of India and far away to the South-West Arabian Sea off the East African coast. A prevailing well-marked low-pressure area over Lakshadweep and the South-East Arabian Sea had quickly intensified twice to become a deep depression, and is now just a gust away from being called a cyclone.

The deep depression was located 440 km West-South-West of Panjim, Goa. It may intensify further into a cyclone by tomorrow (Thursday), but move to the North-West away from the West Coast of India.

The other deep depression lay practically stationery overnight 670 km South-South-East of Socotra Islands (Yemen) and 93 km East-South-East of Bosaso (Somalia). It is expected to become a cyclone later tonight (Wednesday).

Chennai is expected to see partly cloudy skies this Wednesday, as the usual chain of rain-bearing clouds seems to have left it far behind as they have found a much better environment in the Arabian Sea.

The Arabian Sea system’s impact on the North-East monsoon is limited as the draw-down of moisture happens to be from the South around Sri Lanka and the peninsular tip of India, since the prevailing global rain belt band is leaving the North-East monsoon region farther to the South.

Light to moderate rain for TN today

Closer home, the Chennai Regional Met Centre under the IMD sees light to moderate rain occurring at isolated places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry with no heavy rain forecast anywhere.

As for Chennai proper, the sky condition is likely to be generally cloudy. Light rain is likely to occur in some areas. Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be around 31 and 25 degrees Celsius, respectively. Humidity had already soared to 100 per cent and temperature to 28.3 degrees Celsius in the morning.

The winds are currently east-north-east; they have to be east-south-easterly or south-easterly to bring rains during this phase of the North-East monsoon but Chennai would have to wait for a couple of days more to assess its chances, if any.

At around 9 am this (Wednesday) morning, however, a batch of light thunderstorms hung into the seas just off Royapuram, Chennai, Government Estate, and Bharati Nagar, carrying signs of activity in its tail. This could be the one that various models expect to cause light rain over the city and its neighbourhood.

Chennai: 20% chance of rain say global models

To the interior South-West, more potent storms had set themselves up over Walajabad and Marai Malai Nagar and further to the South, across the stretch between Marakanam and Mahabalipuram, just to the Coastal East of Maduranthakam, with a few spots of activity spread out over the deeper South.

As for Chennai city proper, international models estimate 20 per cent of precipitation for today (Wednesday), as was the case on Tuesday. There will be some clouds into the evening, but chances of precipitation would be even lower at 10 per cent as winds continue to be north-easterly all through. The Chennai International Airport (MAA/VOMM) reported fog conditions at 9.30 am, temperature of 28 degree Celsius and north-easterly winds. Current disruptions included an average five minutes delay (reducing trend) in arrivals and 10 minutes delay (increasing trend) in departures.

It should be cloudy over Puducherry but without much purchase in terms of rain probability. Salem is partly cloudy but has a much better chance of rain, assessed at 40 per cent; Conditions are similar in Coimbatore and Tiruchirappalli, with a higher 60 per cent of rain into the night for the former; drier in Madurai; but an elevated 60 per cent chance of rain during the night for Thoothukudi.

Outlook by The Weather Company

A detailed North-East monsoon outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business, had to say the following: Precipitation totals in December over South India is forecast to be average or slightly lower. A similar outlook is held out for January, too.

As for current weather, the international forecaster said that while rainfall is likely to be confined mainly over Coastal Tamil Nadu, the inland may get affected on Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday. Other areas will remain mostly dry during this forecast period.

While the India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi, has maintained the outlook that the well-marked low-pressure area to the North of Lakshadweep may become a depression by tonight (Wednesday), the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has already called it a cyclonic storm.

It may be recalled that the IMD has already put a deep depression farther away near the African shore under watch to intensify as a cyclone. According to JTWC, the purported cyclone nearer home (away from the Goa coast) may maintain its intensity until around tomorrow (Thursday) noon, then weaken into a deep depression late into the night, posing no threat to India's West Coast.

Next easterly wave?

As for today (Wednesday), The Weather Company has forecast scattered rain and thunderstorms over Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Isolated rain and thunderstorms are possible over Kerala, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh. Gale-force winds with speed of 60-70 km/hr are likely over the East-Central Arabian Sea some 450 km off the coast of Goa around the well-marked low-pressure area.

For tomorrow (Thursday), The Weather Company is predicting scattered rain and thunderstorms over Tamil Nadu, while it would be isolated rain and thunderstorms over Kerala and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

Thunderstorms over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands could hold the clue to the expected next easterly wave likely being triggered by the brute force of typhoon Kammuri, which made landfall over the Phillippines yesterday and send out a remnant into the downstream South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

All is still not lost on the North-East monsoon front, say Chennai’s die-hard bloggers:

 

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