Barely two weeks to go for the three-phase polling in Assam, the State Congress leadership seems to be cautiously optimistic.

It is optimistic of reaping rewards from the recent controversy over the now-aborted Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB). But there is fear that the potential gains may remain elusive as the AIDUF has decided to contest in only three seats, so as to ensure the consolidation of “anti-BJP votes.”

Seat tally unclear

Debabrata Saikia, Leader of the Opposition in the Assam Assembly and son of the former Congress Chief Minister Hiteswar Saikia, refused to hazard a guess about the expected number of seats.

“It’s very difficult to estimate due to the changing political scenario,” Saikia told BusinessLine . He, however, asserted that the Congress would do better than the three seats it got in 2014.

Founded by business tycoon and MP Badruddin Ajmal in 2005, the All India Democratic United Front (AIDUF) is trying to woo Assam’s 34 per cent (Census 2011) Muslim population, up from 28 per cent in 20 years, which was traditionally a vote bank for the Congress.

So far, the AIDUF has been reasonably successful in consolidating its position in the Bengali-speaking, Muslim-dominated Lower Assam and the Barak Valley areas, which are in the eye of the ‘illegal immigration’ and the NRC debate.

It had secured three seats in 2014 with nearly 15 per cent vote share.

On the flip side, the party is commonly perceived by Assamese as the political force behind illegal immigration. The stigma is so strong that the Muslim population from Upper Assam, which is commonly referred as the sons of the soil, stay away from AIDUF.

What is more, the Congress having ruled the State for three consecutive terms till 2016, finds itself firmly embroiled in the illegal immigration controversy, as the BJP has been consistent in accusing the Congress of “colluding with the AIDUF” in bringing in infiltrators. Saikia admits that the AIDUF’s decision could put the party in trouble. But he sees the BJP’s role behind it. “We believe BJP is using the AIDUF. In the last election the BJP asked AIUDF to field candidates in seven seats to divide (Muslim) votes. This time they want to put us in an awkward situation,” he said.

To sum up, the Muslim vote is a double-edged sword in Assam politics; as consolidation of Muslim votes might trigger erosion in support of the caste Assamese voters (roughly 36 per cent of total), who were in the forefront of the anti-CAB agitation.

Tea workers’ stand

The situation is precarious as the Congress has already suffered erosion in its traditional support base among tea tribes (22 per cent of population) and other tribes (like Ahom, Moran and Matak), who decide the fate of five Upper Assam constituencies.

The BJP swept the region during the panchayat elections in December 2018, riding on various cash and non-cash incentives offered by the State government. The tea wages also jumped by 22 per cent last year in an interim order.

The BJP’s grip may have tightened following the recent award of Scheduled Tribe status to six aboriginal communities. Meanwhile, the call for CAB further polarised the Barak Valley, ensuring potential gains to the saffron party.

Congress prospects

This means the Congress may face substantial headwinds to retain two of its three seats at Silchar and Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council. However, according to party insiders, if the anti-CAB sentiments work to the desired potential, the Congress may retain Kaliabor and win Jorhat (from the BJP) in Upper Assam.

In lower and mid-Assam, the party is hopeful of winning Mongoldoi and Nowgong constituencies from the BJP, riding on anti-incumbency. Junior Rail Minister Rajen Gohain is a four-time winner from Nowgong.

A party spokesperson said the Congress has strong possibility to win Karimganj seat from AIDUF. But AIDUF dismisses such a possibility.

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