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According to researchers at Princeton University, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including mandatory masks and social distancing protocols, may merely postpone the incidence of future outbreaks.
Though NPIs play a key role in keeping the spread of the pathogens in check, once NPIs are lifted they may let the pathogens spread unhindered.
The findings of their study were published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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First author Rachel Baker, an associate research scholar at the High Meadows Environmental Institute (HMEI) at Princeton University, said, “Declines in case numbers of several respiratory pathogens have been observed recently in many global locations.”
Baker added, “While this reduction in cases could be interpreted as a positive side-effect of Covid-19 prevention, the reality is much more complex. Our results suggest that susceptibility to these other diseases, such as RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) and flu, could increase while NPIs are in place, resulting in large outbreaks when they begin circulating again.”
Baker and the team observed that NPIs could lead to a future uptick in RSV — an endemic viral infection in the United States. They could also be a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in young infants. However, the same effect was not as pronounced for influenza.
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For the study, the researchers used an epidemiological model based on retrospective RSV data to examine the possible impact of Covid-19 NPIs on future RSV outbreaks.
They found that the duration of NPI measures is inversely proportional to future RSV outbreaks. These outbreaks were often delayed following the end of the NPI period, with peak cases projected to occur in many locations in winter 2021-22.
“It is very important to prepare for this possible future outbreak risk and to pay attention to the full gamut of infections impacted by Covid-19 NPIs,” Baker said.
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