Cyclone watch as Bay of Bengal erupts with activity overnight

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on September 25, 2021

A brewing cyclone in the Bay of Bengal will trigger activity also in the Arabian Sea (off Kerala coast) with associated rainfall benefits over next two days, as seen from satellite pictures on Sunday morning.

More rain seen as deficit shrinks to two per cent

The Bay of Bengal has suddenly woken up to extreme weather activity with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) declaring a cyclone watch after an innocuous remnant from a tropical storm in the South China Sea drifted in and started to change complexion from yesterday (Friday) evening.

It morphed progressively into a low-pressure area, a well-marked low-pressure area and a depression into the night and as a deep depression this (Saturday) morning, only a gust away from being declared a rare September cyclone in the Bay just as the monsoon is about to run its normal course.

Eyes North AP-South Odisha coast

The IMD said that the deep depression lay centred at 5.30 am on Saturday morning over North and adjoining East-Central Bay, about 510 km East-South-East of Gopalpur and 590 km East-North-East of Kalingapatnam.

It is likely to intensify into a cyclone by the evening, and move nearly westwards and cross North Andhra Pradesh-South Odisha coasts between Vishakhapatnam and Gopalpur around Kalingapatnam.

High wind warning

The IMD has warned of squally winds with speed reaching 50-60 km/hr and gusting to 70 km/hr over North-West and adjoining West-Central Bay. They may increase gradually to gale-force winds of 60-70 km/hr gusting to 80 km/hr from Saturday evening and 70-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr from Sunday morning till evening.

Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr may prevail also along and off Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh coasts from this (Saturday) morning. They will gradually increase to gale-force winds at 70-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr from Sunday afternoon till midnight along and off North Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts.

Alert to fishermen

Sea condition will be ‘rough to very rough’ (wave heights of 13-20 ft) over East-Central and the adjoining North-East Bay during, as well as over the North-West and adjoining West-Central Bay and along and off Odisha, West Bengal and North Andhra Pradesh coasts until this (Saturday) evening.

It may become ‘high’ (20-30 ft) from then till Sunday evening while it will remain ‘rough to very rough’ over North-West Bay and along and off Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts on Monday.

Fishermen are advised to not venture into East-Central and the adjoining North-East Bay and the Andaman Sea today (Saturday), and North-West and adjoining West-Central Bay and along and off the Odisha, West Bengal and North Andhra Pradesh coasts till Monday.

More rain as deficit trims to 2 per cent

Meanwhile, the cyclone will set off a rain belt of varying intensity as early as from today (Saturday) over the plains of West Bengal, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh before wading further into land. The rainfall deficit for the country as a whole has been trimmed to two per cent as of yesterday (Friday).

The IMD has forecast light to moderate rainfall at many places of the plains of West Bengal, Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh for today with heavy rainfall at isolated places.

As for tomorrow (Sunday), light to moderate rainfall is forecast at most places over South Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places. Heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Telangana and heavy over North Interior Odisha and Chhattisgarh.

Stormy Pacific weighs in

On Monday, light to moderate rainfall at most places is likely over South Chhattisgarh with heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls at isolated places while heavy to very heavy falls are forecast at isolated places over Odisha and Telangana and heavy rainfall over Coastal West Bengal.

Private forecaster Skymet Weather said that two tropical storms had formed recently over the West Pacific with the first one named ‘Dianmu’ making a landfall over the Vietnam coast two days ago and sending off a remnant across Indochina and into the Bay of Bengal where it has intensified.

Storms Dianmu, Minduelle

The US Climate Prediction Centre picked a second storm, Minduelle, located over the Philippine Sea, which is forecast to strengthen into a typhoon (cyclone) and potentially spin away to the East (opposite direction to Dianmu) and track close to Japan over the next week.

The highest confidence for above-normal rainfall from tropical storm Dianmu for this week is posted across portions of the East Indian Ocean, South-East Asia and the Maritime Continent (Indonesia et al), which is consistent with the enhanced convective envelope over these areas, the US agency said.

Published on September 25, 2021

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