Cyclone watch in the Bay as rain surplus for country as a whole grows to 48%

An ongoing bumper north east monsoon over the command area of the south Peninsula seems to have had a rub-off effect on concurrent weather over the rest of the country except North and North East India. The country as a whole has registered a surplus rainfall of 48 per cent during October and November. The situation may have eased a bit as the season enters the last month of December.

But this is not to rule out the early-December bump-up in weather activity on either side of the peninsula with both the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and private forecaster Skymet Weather declaring a look-out for formation of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal even as the Arabian Sea will be kept on the boil by a low-pressure area.

Cyclone watch-out in the Bay

In the Bay basin, a low-pressure area has been parked over the central parts of Andaman Sea, which is expected to become a depression setting itself on a journey that would see it undergo more rounds of intensification.

The IMD has said that it is likely to move West-North-West and concentrate into a depression over South East and adjoining east central Bay by tomorrow (Thursday) before intensifying into a cyclone over the central Bay the subsequent day.

It is expected to intensify further into a powerful cyclone and reach near the north Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coasts by Saturday morning. Thereafter, the cyclone is widely believed to take a turn to the East-North-East under the influence of a western disturbance travelling in from North-West India around though the IMD’s bulletin has not hinted about a shift in track.

Shift in track

It has merely forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands until tomorrow (Thursday); over north coastal Andhra Pradesh on Friday and Saturday, over coastal Odisha from Friday to Sunday, and over the plains of West Bengal on Saturday and Sunday. This goes to rack of indicates the East-North-East track of the cyclone along the east coast.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Andaman Sea during until Thursday, into the South-East and adjoining East-Central Bay on Thursday and Friday, West-Central and adjoining North-West Bay along and off the North Andhra Pradesh-Odisha-West Bengal coasts from Thursday to Saturday. Those out at sea advised to return to coast by Thursday morning.

South Peninsula to sit out

The South Peninsula, which has already received excess rainfall of 71 per cent so far during the season, will largely sit out of the emerging wet spell. South Interior Karnataka (+149 per cent), Rayalaseema (+124 per cent), Kerala (115 per cent), Coastal Karnataka (+109 per cent), and Tamil Nadu (+83 per cent) are among the meteorological subdivisions making big gains.

North-West India sprang a surprise by recording excess rainfall of 107 per cent, and could witness even more rain as western disturbances kick off activity. Central India has 18 per cent surplus while East and North-East India came in the lowest with four per cent thanks to lingering deficits in three Met subdivisions. Only one Met subdivision each in Central India and South Peninsula are in deficit.

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