El Nino may weaken beyond February 2019, but caution advised

The concurrent 2018 El Nino in the Equatorial Pacific is forecast to weaken beyond February 2019, but caution should ideally be the watchword for vulnerable economies in the Asia-Pacific.

This is stated in the December advisory brought out by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES), both based in Bangkok.

HISTORICAL TRENDS

All global models indicate further weakening of the 2018 El Nino beyond February 2019. However, the historical evolution of El Nino during 1986, 1991 and 2014 show variations.

The El Nino continued through 1987-88, 1992-93, and 2015-2016 respectively, with enhanced intensities and prolonged duration of associated conditions spanning several seasons in many countries.

The advisory was prepared under the joint direction of Tiziana Bonapace, Director, ICT and Disaster Risk Reduction Division, ESCAP, and AR Subbiah, Director, RIMES.

They were supported by a multidisciplinary team comprising G Srinivasan and Jothiganesh Shanmugasundaram of RIMES; and Sanjay Srivastava, Kareff Rafisura, Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood, Maria Bernadet Karina Dewi, Laura Hendy, and Hyun-mi Kang of ESCAP.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a a tango that takes two - the ocean and the atmosphere - to complete. This year, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, the atmosphere has not yet responded.

'NEUTRAL CONDITIONS'

Therefore, only 'ENSO-neutral conditions have prevailed in the region so far. Although the stage is set for the tango, ENSO may or may not materialise, or just slightly influence some parts of the region.

The current situation is unlikely to produce a large-scale disturbance that can cause wide-ranging global impacts known to be associated with strong El Ninos, at least during the coming winter months until February 2019, the advisory says.

However, this does not mean that there is no risk of climate-related disasters in the coming season. Extreme climate events could still manifest themselves even during non-El Nino or neutral Pacific SST conditions.

According to the advisory, above-normal precipitation is likely during the winter (December 2018 to February 2019) over North Afghanistan, North Pakistan, North India and some areas of North Myanmar.

Below-normal precipitation is likely over the south-eastern part of India (Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka), Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Normal to above-normal temperatures may prevail over most of the region.

MOST VULNERABLE

The economic stock that is exposed to potentially below-normal rainfall during December to February is estimated to be highest in South India, some parts of Sri Lanka, South Thailand and adjoining parts of Malaysia, South Indonesia, and North Australia.

Some locations are already experiencing severe impacts due to climate variability. Although the predicted impacts of El Niño on rainfall may not be very severe, the high levels of vulnerability already existing in those locations may amplify the potential impacts of El Niño, should it materialise.

Some countries in the Asia-Pacific region are already reeling from the effects of large-scale disasters; quick succession of tropical cyclones; heavy rainfall; and drought.

Considering the evolving situation, ESCAP-RIMES has advised all sectors to continue monitoring and adjusting their contingency plans and actions based on weather forecasts.

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