Mamata Banerjee is all set for a third term as Chief Minister with her party, the Trinamool Congress racing past the BJP towards the majority mark here in West Bengal.

Trends uploaded on the Election Commission Of India website suggest that although Banerjee herself is trailing in the high pitched battle of Nandigram - to her protege turned bete noire - the party has secured leads in 200-odd seats. The BJP is leading in 83 while the ally AJSU is leading in one.

Elections were held in 292 of the 294 seats of the State and the majority mark is 148.

‘Minority vote consolidation’

Political observers point out that Hindu vote consolidation and caste factors have not played out as they were expected to, while there has been a minority-vote consolidation in favour of the Trinamool.

On the other hand, the BJP - which struggled in getting its organisation going - had relied too heavily on turncoats, primarily from the Trinamool, which failed to ring with the people. Unlike UP or in Assam where the party built its organisation, BJP in Bengal was seeking to unseat Banerjee in just a two-year-time frame (post a good show in 2019 Lok Sabha polls) and banking on the charisma of PM Narendra Modi and organisation capacities of Union HM, Amit Shah. The odds were always stacked against the saffron party.

The other factor which played a key role was the rising second wave of Covid infections and reports highlighting the mismanagement by the Center. These played a key in the last three phases with more than 100 seats going to polls.

Watch | Mamata Banerjee: From student leader to West Bengal 's Chief Minister

Moreover, departure of dissidents actually helped the party bring together several factions and bringing in new candidates also helped beat anti-incumbent.

Rise of BJP

Observers also claim that while BJP was “going for the jugular” and an “improbable win”, the party's performance in the State was “extremely impressive”. Starting from scratch in 2011 to a small presence in 2016 when it won three seats; BJP has emerged as the prime opposition of the State.

The Left Front and the Congress have been absolutely decimated in what now appears to be a bipolar election. Strongholds of Congress - Malda and Murshidabad - have cracked. Trinamool and BJP have secured leads there. The Left Front has failed to lead a single seat.

“It’s BJP vs Trinamool and this will be the trend now for many elections. It will be a two-party war. Trinamool took 12 years and a pro-people mandate to defeat Left. The BJP is looking to do the same in two years and without an organisation at the grassroot or any acceptable regional face. Naturally the results swung in favour of the Trinamool this time. As for the Left and Congress, they are insignificant,” an analyst said requesting anonymity.

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